The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
The Charles Schwab Challenge will run this year as an Invitational event but without Signature field status. That means we’ll get a field of 120 golfers with a regular cut line after Friday where the top 65 players and ties will make the weekend. The Charles Schwab is one of the older events on the PGA TOUR (first held in 1946), and the venue is a classic in its own right and stands out from some of the more modern designs. It did undergo some extensive renovations for 2024 but is likely to play somewhat similar to how it has in the past.
The field this week still includes three top 10 players in the OWGR, with number one ranked Scottie Scheffler, number 10 ranked Max Homa and number nine ranked Collin Morikawa all in attendance. Past champions Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose are playing, as is 2023 winner Emiliano Grillo. Despite this being an Invitational, there is still a bit of “dead money” at the bottom of the field with names like Michael Block and Rory Sabbatini getting spots.
The Course
Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas
Par 70, 7,289 yards; Greens: Bentgrass, Fairways and rough: Bermuda
The venue this week will be the fourth time that the PGA has played in Texas this season, with past Texas winners including Jaeger – Houston, Bhatia – Valero, CJ Cup – Pendrith. It’s also the 2nd week in a row (and 3rd time in four weeks) that we have seen bentgrass greens in play on the PGA.
Colonial Country Club plays as a traditional par 70 that lands just under 7,300 yards in length. The course features tight fairways with several old trees that are very much in play and often block approaches on off-center tee shots. That, along with a couple of severe doglegs and smaller greens, means there is a big premium on accuracy. Driving accuracy numbers at Colonial are usually quite below PGA TOUR averages, and players will often club down quite a bit off the tee simply due to the setup.
To make things even tougher, there’s a plethora of bunkers throughout the course, and play from the sand is something to keep note of this week — there are some great bunker players in the list of past winners (Na, Kisner and Jordan Spieth, to name a few). The bentgrass greens are also smaller than average, and water is surprisingly in play on this parkland course on six holes to keep things interesting. As a result, a pure-power game often doesn’t play that well here — accuracy with mid-irons and strong bentgrass putting has been the key to success for many past winners.
As for the layout, the first couple of holes at Colonial play rather easy, with the leadoff par 5 being a near-must birdie — it’s the easiest hole players face all week. The other par 5 (11th hole) plays very long at a maximum of 635 yards but still plays as one of the easiest holes, overall. The par 3s are a mixed bag but play quite tough in general, mainly due to the small greens and the fact water and sand are in play for wayward tee shots. Only one of the par 3s plays well over 200 yards, but the smaller greens put a big premium on accuracy.
The Par 4s do vary a little, but there of the 12 par 4s on the course, seven of them fall in the 400-450 yard range, making that a good distance to target when looking up par 4 efficiency stats.
The venue did undergo extensive renovations for 2024, led by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner, that began right after last seasons event, and were aimed at restoring the course to its original design. New Bentgrass greens were installed and some hole locations were moved, including the Par 3 8th and Par 3 13th. These holes should now play tougher as the water and penalty areas will now present a bigger challenge than they did previously. Barrancas (small gulleys with natural vegetation) were added around many holes to give the course ea more natural flavour and feel.
I don’t expect the venue to play that much differently than it has in recent years, but tougher tee shots on multiple par 3s will undoubtedly put a bigger emphasis on ball striking. Additionally, if the greens do play more receptive (in the past they often dried out as the week went on) we could see scoring be somewhat easier than it has been the past couple of seasons.
2024 Weather Outlook: It’s Texas in the summer so thunderstorms are always going to be on the menu. Wednesday and Thursday have thunderstorm warnings in effect for this area, although they are not severe. Thursday’s storms don’t come until the afternoon/evening either so we may still get the full Round 1 in on Thursday. AM players on the first day may have a slight advantage as the wind does look like it will pick up directly before the storms roll in. Friday through Sunday has temperatures heating up into the low 90F range, so expect firmer greens as the event rolls on. Thursday AM players will likely get the best conditions so targeting early tee times for showdown lineups and first-round leader bets seems like it will be paramount for Round 1.
Last 5 winners
Emiliano Grillo—2023 (-8 over Adam Schenk playoff)
Sam Burns—2022 (-9 over Scottie Scheffler playoff)
Jason Kokrak—2021 (-14 over Jordan Spieth -12)
Daniel Berger—2020 (-15 over Collin Morikawa playoff)
Kevin Na—2019 (-13 over Tony Finau -9)
Winning Trends
- Each of the last 11 winners of the Charles Schwab Invitational had a T8 finish or better on the PGA TOUR in one of their previous six starts before their respective win.
- Four of the last eight winners finished T14 or better at Colonial in the season before their win.
- Each of the last four winners of the Charles Schwab (not including 2020) played in the PGA Championship the week prior.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2023 Winner: Emiliano Grillo (8-under par)
2023 lead-in form (MC-T23-T5-T7-T53)
SG: OTT—-0.2
SG: APP—+4.7
SG: TTG—+4.0
SG: ATG—-0.4
SG: PUTT—+7.4
- Top players at Colonial have tended to rank well in the Strokes Gained: Approach category, with both Justin Rose (2018) and Na (2019) leading the field for the week in SG: APP during their win. Kokrak gained +5.2 strokes on approach in 2021 but lost -2.0 strokes ATG. Burns wasn’t quite as prolific but still gained 3.9 strokes for the week.
- Putting tends to be weighted almost nearly as heavily in past winners’ stat profiles. Burns gained +5.0 strokes putting, and last season’s winner (Grillo) gained 7.4 strokes on the greens (second most in the field).
- Seven of the last eight winners at Colonial have gained over +5.0 strokes putting for the week on these greens. Some of the most elite spike putters in the sport (Spieth, Kisner and Na) have all grabbed wins at this event over the past five seasons.
- It’s also worth noting that each of the last four winners all gained strokes putting in the start prior to their win at Colonial as well.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Harris English +3500 and $9,000
Comparables:
Keith Mitchell +4500 and $8,600
Comparables:
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4500 and $8,900
- Denny McCarthy +6000 and $8,700
- Billy Horschel +5000 and $8,800
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Jordan Spieth ($10,600; best finishes: win-2016, T2-2015, 2021, win-2017): Colonial has proven to be the perfect setup for Spieth over his pro career. The Texas native is more than used to the climate, and the tighter track doesn’t emphasize power as much off the tee. He’s landed top-10 finishes here in six of the last eight seasons and leads the field in SG: Total here, by a wide margin, over that span.
2. Justin Rose ($8,500; best finishes: win-2018, T3-2020): Rose only added Colonial to his schedule a handful of years ago, but (like many veterans on the PGA TOUR) found immediate success. He won on debut in 2018 and added a T3 in 2020. He has finished top 20 in four of his last six visits to the course and is coming off a strong showing at the PGA Championship last week.
3. Emiliano Grillo ($7,100; best finishes: win- 2023, 3rd-2018, T8-2021): Grillo won this event last season and posted top 10 finishes at this event in 2018 and 2021. The Argentine’s ball-striking typically allows him to excel on more technical tracks but he’s found a ton of success on these greens as well. His form this season stinks but a return to his happy place may help.
4. Tony Finau ($9,900; best finishes: 2nd-2019, T4-2022): Finau’s development over the past few seasons has seen him excel on more technical courses with more and more frequency. He grabbed a 2nd place finish at Colonial in 2019 and was T4 at this venue in 2022. Despite missing the cut at this venue last year, he’s still 2nd in SG: Total stats at Colonial the past five years
5. Brendon Todd ($7,000; best finishes: T3-2022, T8-2021): Todd is a high-end putter who can compete with the best on these shorter-to-mid length par 70 tracks when his iron play is in form. He’s finished T3 and T8 at Colonial in 2021 and 2022 but is admittedly coming off a terrible weekend at Valhalla. He’ll be a boom-or-bust course history play for this week’s event.
Recent Form
1. Scottie Scheffler ($13,300; T8-win-win): Scheffler survived a trip to the jail cell last week and landed a T8 at the PGA. He’s still the hottest player in the world and even bizarre off-the-course mishaps aren’t slowing him down much.
2. Collin Morikwa ($11,000; T4-T16-T9): Morikawa didn’t have the finish he wanted last week but still recorded his second top 10 at a major this season. His ball-striking stats aren’t great right now but his putter is picking up the slack.
3. Bill Horschel ($8,800; T8-T52-win): I didn’t realize Horschel finished in the top 10 last week until this morning, that’s how under-the-radar his performance was last week. He putted the lights out last Sunday and if he does the same thing this week, will likely challenge on this shorter course.
4. Taylor Moore ($7,900; T12-T38): Moore also had an underrated PGA Championship, finishing T12. He’s now posted career-best finishes in back-to-back majors and is building some solid momentum.
5. Tom Hoge ($9,300; T23-T38): Consistent Tom Hoge had a decent showing last week, placing T23. He gained 6.0 strokes on approach and hasn’t missed a cut since the Sony Open in January.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Use value to fit in Scheffler
This week is wide open simply because the course tends to allow so many different styles of play to compete. Players who can putt and get in their groove on approaches can often find themselves within a couple of shots of the lead going into Sunday. As such, there doesn’t feel like much difference with the players in the $6,000 to $7,000 range (compared to the $7,000 to $8,000 range). Names like Adam Svensson ($6,400), Justin Lower ($6,400 – see below) and Seoghyeong Kim ($6,700) could all be used in this format to help you fit in Scheffler ($13,300) who sits with incredibly short +280 outright odds — and is a dangerous man to fade this week. Below Scheffler, names like Justin Rose ($8,500) and Aaron Rai ($7,800) also look like decent values for this event but letting salary dictate who you fit after using the stars and scrubs should be your goal.
Tournaments: Pivot to Straka and Bezuidenhout
If you’re targeting a more balanced lineup for GPPs (and likely fading Scheffler) then two names that seem likely to draw low sentiment this week include Sepp Straka ($8,300) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,900). Bezuidenhout looks overpriced compared to some of his peers and will be hard to fit in with Scheffler. He sets up well for this venue, though, and was T9 a few starts ago at the Valspar, another tight and winding venue with tougher par 4s. Straka has lots of upside but couldn’t get things going on the longer Valhalla. This week’s setup is more his style and like Bezuidenhout, his missed cut last week likely keeps his ownership down. Other potential short-priced targets for big-field GPPs include Troy Merritt ($5,400), Rafael Campos ($5,300), and Ben Kohles ($5,700).
MY PICK: Sungjae Im ($9,400)
Im is looking for career win number three this week and looks like a player who can potentially follow Grillo’s path from 2023 — who also missed the cut at the PGA Championship directly before winning at Colonial. Im’s last two starts before the PGA yielded T4 and T12 finishes, much better results for a player we are used to seeing mix it up at the top of leaderboards with more regularity than he has thus far in 2024.
Many may point to Im’s ball-striking stats as a reason to stay away but he gained strokes off the tee and on approach in both rounds last week at Valhalla but simply couldn’t bury a putt in either round. That club (the putter) has been in solid form for him of late so a quick bounce back on the greens should almost be expected. The truth is, this event (even with the refurbished setup) is more of a putting contest to begin with, which should help Im’s chances. Grillo did gain 4.7 strokes on approach last season on his way to winning, but lost strokes off the tee and around the greens — both Grillo and playoff loser Adam Schenk gained over 5.0 strokes putting.
Im has never technically won off a missed cut but his two career wins have come on somewhat similar courses to Colonial (PGA National and TPC Summerlin) and he lost multiple strokes at the Sanderson Farms on approach the week before winning the Shriners.
Given that his price is still somewhat suppressed, this feels like a great time to buy low for DFS, especially in big fields where he’s unlikely to be chalk. For betting, his +3500 outright number on DraftKings Sportsbook also offers solid upside on an elite player who has been trending positively over the last month.
MY SLEEPER: Justin Lower ($6,400)
Lower looks like he could make some noise on this tighter, more technical setup. The 35-year-old has been in solid form most of the year showcasing better upside with his irons and his usual consistency on the greens. He ranks 6th in strokes gained putting over the last 24 rounds, which immediately should put him on our radars for DFS just given how important putting is at Colonial. Past winners here have gained nearly as many strokes putting as they have on approach, which makes this a traditional iron and putter setup — Lower’s two areas of strength.
Over the past 24 rounds Lower ranks 3rd in overall proximity with his approaches and is also 8th in proximity from 150-175 yards, which with Colonial’s dogleg-heavy setup, tends to be the most popular yardage basket players will see this week. With two top-10 finishes on the PGA already this season he’s been in contention in these lower-level events already and does have some experience on the course, posting a T57 at this event last season — an effort that did see him gain 1.9 strokes putting.
He looks undervalued at just $6,400 for DFS and for betting, his upside on the greens makes him a perfect top 20 bet at a juicy +500 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
