The MLB Prop Bets article for Monday will be brief, as only seven games are scheduled, with the first starting at 6:35 p.m. ET. Weather won’t be an issue tonight, with a minimal chance of rain for any of the games. If you want to follow any of these betting picks, click the article title to visit the betting page on
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MLB Prop Bets for Monday, April 28, 2025
Tomoyuki Sugano over 2.5 earned runs allowed -125
Sugano, the 35-year-old rookie, has been remarkably fortunate this season. Through 28 innings, he posts a 3.54 ERA, but his xERA stands at 6.11, with a 5.84 FIP. That luck may well run out tonight against the Yankees, who have been hitting consistently well, averaging five runs over their last five games, including 18 runs in three games against the Blue Jays over the weekend. Sugano’s primary pitch, a split-finger fastball, hasn’t fooled opposing hitters, who are batting .313 against it (.319 expected batting average, xBA) and slugging .438 (.532 expected slugging, xSLG). This is Sugano’s toughest matchup yet, having faced the Blue Jays (twice), Royals, Guardians, and Nationals. I expect the Yankees to capitalize early and tag him for at least three earned runs.
DraftKings Network provides FREE betting splits. Check out how the public is betting on the games, totals, and run lines!
Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases +115
You might be surprised to learn that Shohei Ohtani has recorded at least two total bases in only 10 of his 36 games this season (27.8%). This seems unexpected, as his performance feels stronger than that. Still, we’re getting +115 odds for him to achieve two or more total bases tonight against Edward Cabrera and the Marlins’ bullpen. Since last season, Cabrera has struggled against left-handed hitters, posting a .375 wOBA, a 5.47 FIP, and a 1.7 HR/9 across 53.1 innings. Cabrera throws four pitches—changeup, curveball, sinker, and slider—with roughly equal frequency. Against right-handed pitchers, Ohtani has at least a .438 wOBA against each of these pitches. If there’s a matchup for Ohtani to record at least two total bases tonight, this is the one.
Patrick Corbin under 16.5 outs recorded -110
I’m getting really tired of this facade that has defined Patrick Corbin’s 2025 season. People are proclaiming, “He’s back!” after he threw just 14.1 innings, allowing six runs on 17 hits with 10 strikeouts. I know the real Patrick Corbin, and this isn’t him. His underlying stats reveal the truth: his 3.77 ERA comes with a 4.77 xERA and a 5.42 FIP. In his last start against the Athletics, he allowed two runs on seven hits. It could have been much worse—his FIP in that game was 7.85.
If Corbin were to exceed 16.5 outs, which we don’t want, it would be his longest outing of the season. He has reached this range twice, pitching five innings in his last outing and 5.1 in the one before. The issue is that Corbin throws a lot of pitches. Despite not exceeding 5.1 innings in his three starts, he has thrown at least 85 pitches in two of them. The Athletics have shown good patience this season, with tonight’s expected lineup featuring five players with at least a 9% walk rate (BB%) this year. I expect Corbin to go under this outs total tonight.
Double Play Parlay: Cardinals/Braves over 0.5 double plays turned +196
Double Play Parlay record: 3-3 +3.28 units
After two straight losses, we hit a big Double Play Parlay on Friday. When I wrote it up, the parlay combined for +278. A couple of bettors who tailed it later in the day got it at +313! To continue transparency, I’ll count the win as what I wrote it up at, which was +278. Nonetheless, a great way to get this parlay back on track.
Tonight, I’m rolling with the Cardinals and Braves to both turn a double play. The Cardinals were an easy choice with Andre Pallante taking the mound. He’s inducing ground balls at a crazy rate of 67%! It’s very likely the Cardinals will be an automatic choice when he’s on the mound.
The Braves are the second leg of this parlay. They’ll have Bryce Elder starting for them, who also induces ground balls at a very high rate. He’s currently at 57% on the season, which is currently a new career high. Elder is not a strikeout pitcher and needs contact to record outs. This is helpful for us, as it gives us a better chance of opposing hitters to reach base.
Steve Buchanan MLB Parlay
Every Monday and Friday, I post a parlay I like on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can see what I came up with below and add it directly to your bet slip if you want to tail along.
For analysis on why I like these players to record 2+ total bases, read my MLB Parlay article on DraftKings Network.
Good luck with these MLB picks for tonight!
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