UPDATE: Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (shin) has been ruled out of tonight’s contest against the Phoenix Suns.
Just three games remain for every single NBA team as the 2024-25 regular season winds to a close. The convoluted Western Conference playoff picture is no closer to being resolved after last night’s results, although the Minnesota Timberwolves’ late blown lead to the Milwaukee Bucks certainly didn’t help their chances of staying out of the Play-In Tournament.
After tonight’s 10-game slate, there will be five more clashes tomorrow night. Then, all 30 teams will take the court for their final games of the season on Friday and Sunday. For the penultimate time this regular season, here are my best bets for tonight’s action at DraftKings Sportsbook.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. ET
Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns, 10 p.m. ET
San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
Houston Rockets at LA Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Washington Wizards Moneyline (+102)
Several of the games on this slate are intriguing for different reasons. Houston and LA are both contenders, for instance. Boston and Orlando could well face each other in the first round of the playoffs. The Heat and Bulls look destined to face off in the Play-In Tournament. The Lakers-Mavericks matchup has intrigue because, well, Luka Dončić and Anthony Davis exist. This game is interesting because it matches arguably the worst team all season up against arguably the worst team since the All-Star break. Philadelphia is just 3-22 since the midseason intermission and has shut down anyone important for the season, and it’s clinched at best the league’s sixth-worst record, although it can confirm its place in the bottom five with a loss today, which would be its 13th straight defeat.
To be fair, you can never get an individual player to lose intentionally, certainly not one as talented as Quentin Grimes, who has averaged 26.7 points per game on above-average efficiency since the start of March. Justin Edwards, too, has been extremely solid for an undrafted rookie. But this iteration of the 76ers simply isn’t as talented as the Wizards, who have three 2024-25 rookies who have all shown flashes in second overall pick Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, and Kyshawn George. Washington also has some quality veterans — Saddiq Bey, Malcolm Brogdon, Richaun Holmes, and Khris Middleton — that missed yesterday’s game but haven’t officially been ruled out for the season yet. The Wizards kept it competitive last night against a healthy and competitive Indiana Pacers team.
Anthony Davis +3.5 Points vs. Luka Dončić (-110)
Los Angeles’ matchup against the Mavericks on February 25 was supposed to be a revenge game for both Dončić and Davis, but because of the adductor strain that Davis suffered in his first game in Dallas, it was simply Dončić getting his revenge. While the Slovenian was inefficient, he did drop a 19-point, 15-rebound, 12-assist triple-double. Now that he’s more settled in as a Laker, expectations for his scoring are higher. Discounting his rough first few games in Los Angeles, Dončić has been every bit as good as advertised as a scorer, averaging 28.7 points per game on decent efficiency as a Laker.
Dončić has already intimated that he’d be emotional in tonight’s game — especially given the warm welcome that Dallas fans are likely to give him — and when Dončić gets emotional, it means one of two things. Either he’ll produce the greatest outing ever witnessed on a basketball court, or he’ll be inefficient and let LeBron James take over. Perhaps his ejection last night in Oklahoma City will light a fire under him, but his first revenge game indicated that it’s more likely to be the latter. Of the two traded stars, Davis needs to prove himself to his new city, while Dončić will always be loved by Mavericks fans regardless. Plus, while Dončić plays for a star-studded team with several other scoring options, Davis headlines a thinner Dallas roster.
Toumani Camara 25+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (+120)
Utah’s stats in its last 10 games are frankly staggering. The Jazz are just 1-9 — the second-worst record in the league across that span, behind only the aforementioned Philadelphia team — and are allowing 128.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s 6.8 points per 100 possessions worse than any team not in Phoenix. They’re being outscored by 20.1 points per 100 possessions, which would be by far the worst in NBA history across a full season. Utah has also allowed nearly four more points per game than any other team along with the second-most rebounds and most assists per game. If the Jazz suffer through their first 60-loss season in franchise history only to not land Cooper Flagg at the top of the draft lottery, I apologize to their fans.
Camara’s averages over his last 10 games, meanwhile: 15.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. Although his stats fall slightly short of the lofty 25 P/R/A standard, it’s not too hard to see him getting there against this terrible Utah team, especially since those averages are depressed somewhat by a five-point and a six-point outing. He’s reached 25 P/R/A in five of his last 10 games, including a 23-point, 10-rebound outburst against the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday night. Over their last 10 games, the Jazz have also allowed the league’s eighth-most made three-pointers, and Camara has attempted 50.3% of his shots from deep this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-108)
It’s conceivable that Oklahoma City could rest players on the second night of a back-to-back, having clinched the first seed in the West a long time ago. The Thunder’s number one priority is readiness for the postseason, and if last night’s late run to close out a 136-120 win over Los Angeles in a decidedly playoff-like atmosphere is any indication, Oklahoma City is ready. But barring a late scratch, there’s no indication that any of their starting lineup will be rested tonight, and even if any of them are, the Thunder have shown an ability to beat bad teams even without their star players.
I’m not sure if there’s a spread number that would convince me to pick the Suns, who have lost each of their last seven games and have a net rating of negative-23.5 across that span. Phoenix could possibly cover the spread if Kevin Durant returns from the ankle sprain that he suffered on March 30, but there’s no indication that he’ll be expected to return. Plus, the Suns’ stretch of futility started before Durant’s injury; in his last two and a half games before the sprain, Phoenix lost by a combined 45 points to the Boston Celtics and Timberwolves and was down by 35 to the Houston Rockets when he suffered the injury. The Suns can be officially eliminated from postseason contention with a loss tonight, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the man to deliver it.
LA Clippers-Houston Rockets U218.5 Points (-110)
In perhaps an indication of how dangerous the Clippers are headed into the postseason, Houston — the West’s second seed — should be fully healthy and LA is favored by eight points. It makes sense; since the start of March, the Clippers are 15-5 and have posted the league’s best net rating and second-best defensive rating, behind only the Toronto Raptors. The Rockets have hardly been pushovers, though, posting the fifth-best net rating and fourth-best defensive rating in basketball across the same span. LA also plays at the league’s fifth-slowest pace, with James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Ivica Zubac all having reputations as among the league’s most methodical stars.
Both teams’ defenses are legitimate, and even if it has the second-lowest point total on the slate, it’s still too high. Both Houston’s Amen Thompson and Zubac should make All-Defensive teams, Thompson as a game-wrecking free safety and Zubac as an able rim protector and elite rebounder. Three of the Clippers’ last five games have gone under the point total, and in the games that went over, LA’s offense scored 135 points against a poor Mavericks defense and gave up 117 points to San Antonio without an all-time perimeter defender in Leonard.
