Welcome to the wild, wild West, where six teams are separated by just two games. The Los Angeles Lakers are 48-30 with four games to go in the regular season and somehow still haven’t clinched a playoff spot at all. To make matters even more unfathomable, the Denver Nuggets — sitting in fourth at 47-32, but on a four-game losing streak — just fired championship-winning head coach Michael Malone. This shocking news came just 11 days after the Memphis Grizzlies parted ways with their head coach, Taylor Jenkins.
The Oklahoma City Thunder clinched home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs a while ago, and the Houston Rockets look likely to be the second seed, but after that, very little has been determined. I’ll break down the remaining schedules and clinching scenarios for the five teams whose playoff fates hang in the balance: the Lakers, Nuggets, LA Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Grizzlies, and offer a prediction at the end.
A lot will be determined tonight, as every team in the morass except for Denver will take the court.
How it Stands
3. Los Angeles Lakers, 48-30 (+1600 to win NBA Finals at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma City Thunder (4/8/25, 8 p.m. ET); at Dallas Mavericks (4/9/25, 7:30 p.m. ET); vs. Houston Rockets (4/11/25, 10:30 p.m. ET); at Portland Trail Blazers (4/13/25, 3:30 p.m. ET)
With a 1.5-game lead over Denver and the head-to-head tiebreaker over all five teams, Los Angeles controls its own destiny, especially after pulling off an upset win over the Thunder on Sunday. The Lakers simply have to win two of their final four games and they’ll be guaranteed at least the third seed in the conference, which would allow them to avoid Oklahoma City until the conference finals. Los Angeles faces a tall task to beat the Thunder again tonight, but games against the injury-riddled Mavericks and the recently-eliminated Trail Blazers should be doable. Plus, Houston could well have locked up the conference’s second seed by the time the two teams play and have nothing to compete for.
4. Denver Nuggets, 47-32 (+1800 to win NBA Finals at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Remaining Schedule: at Sacramento Kings (4/9/25, 10 p.m. ET); vs. Memphis Grizzlies (4/11/25, 9 p.m. ET); at Houston Rockets (4/13/25, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Nuggets’ playoff prognosis got a lot more iffy earlier this afternoon when Malone was dismissed at the tail of a four-game losing streak, and it’ll be interesting to see how interim head coach David Adelman fares. He should have a better sense of what he needs to do after tonight, as Denver is currently the only team of the bunch with three games remaining. Of the five other teams in action tonight, all are favored, but the Grizzlies probably have the easiest game.
The Nuggets hold the two-way tiebreaker over Golden State and lose it to the Lakers and Timberwolves. Their conference record, also, is better than the Warriors’ or Clippers’ for now, if a three-way tiebreaker comes into play. Denver would be assured of a top-six seed if it can win out, and with the Rockets almost certain to have nothing to play for by the final day of the season, it’s doable, although difficult. Memphis took some time to adjust to its coaching change, losing Tuomas Iisalo’s first three games, so the Nuggets’ top-six berth is far from a guarantee.
5. LA Clippers, 46-32 (+5500 to win NBA Finals at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Remaining Schedule: vs. San Antonio Spurs (4/8/25, 10:30 p.m. ET); vs. Houston Rockets (4/9/25, 10:30 p.m. ET); at Sacramento Kings (4/11/25, 10 p.m. ET); at Golden State Warriors (4/13/25, 3:30 p.m. ET)
LA has been one of the hottest teams in the league in recent weeks, posting a 14-5 record and a league-best plus-12.5 net rating since the start of March, and it will guarantee a top-five finish if it can win out. The Clippers also have the second-easiest game tonight against San Antonio, who have been poor since losing Victor Wembanyama at the All-Star break. LA’s two-way tiebreaker situation isn’t great; it lost the season series to both the Lakers and Minnesota, but at least it has clinched the edge over the Warriors and Grizzlies. Denver is likely to finish with a better conference record, though, so the Clippers could easily be relegated to the Play-In depending on who they tie with in the end. After the Spurs game, their schedule is fairly difficult, especially if the Lakers beat the Thunder tonight to stay alive in the race for the No. 2 seed.
6. Golden State Warriors, 46-32 (+1200 to win NBA Finals at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Remaining Schedule: at Phoenix Suns (4/8/25, 10 p.m. ET); vs. San Antonio Spurs (4/9/25, 10 p.m. ET); at Portland Trail Blazers (4/11/25, 10 p.m. ET); vs. LA Clippers (4/13/25, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Because the Warriors had such an anemic stretch in the middle of the season, their tiebreaker situation isn’t great. They are unlikely to catch Los Angeles to win the Pacific Division, and while they bested Memphis and the Timberwolves in their season series, they’ve lost the tiebreaker to the Lakers, Nuggets, and Clippers, regardless of their result against LA on the final day of the season. Thankfully for Golden State, it has looked like a genuine championship contender since adding Jimmy Butler to the roster, going 21-6 with a plus-9.0 net rating — the second-best figure in the West — since the trade deadline. The Warriors also have a fairly easy schedule, with three of their four remaining opponents effectively eliminated from the postseason. Their task is the same as LA’s: win out and clinch a top five seed.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves, 46-32 (+6000 to win NBA Finals at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Remaining Schedule: at Milwaukee Bucks (4/8/25, 8 p.m. ET); at Memphis Grizzlies (4/10/25, 9:30 p.m. ET); vs. Brooklyn Nets (4/11/25, 9 p.m. ET); vs. Utah Jazz (4/13/25, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Minnesota, is red-hot, having posted a 14-3 record and the league’s fourth-best net rating since the start of March, and it, too, will finish in the top five if it wins each of its remaining games. The Timberwolves are finally healthy, with Julius Randle starting to find his groove and Rudy Gobert playing some of his best basketball of the season. They also have one of the easiest remaining schedules of all of the playoff hopefuls, given that Brooklyn and Utah are a combined 8-41 since the All-Star break. Critically, though, Minnesota has also lost its head-to-head season series against the Warriors and Grizzlies, so Thursday’s matchup will be a must-win if it wants to hold off Memphis in the standings.
8. Memphis Grizzlies, 46-32 (+15000 to win NBA Finals at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Remaining Schedule: at Charlotte Hornets (4/8/25, 7 p.m. ET); vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (4/10/25, 9:30 p.m. ET); at Denver Nuggets (4/11/25, 9 p.m. ET); vs. Dallas Mavericks (4/13/25, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Grizzlies have bounced back somewhat after a stretch of seven losses in eight games (with the only win coming over the lowly Jazz), having won two straight games over the previously-hot Miami Heat and the playoff-bound Detroit Pistons, and winning their last four games would give them a top-five seed. As always, the X-factor for Memphis is the health of Ja Morant, who missed the Detroit game with an illness but isn’t on the injury report tonight. They’ll need him to be healthy, given their difficult schedule from here on out. Of the five teams in the morass, Memphis has only won the season series against the Timberwolves and its conference record is pretty poor, so it’s likely to stay in the Play-In. A win over the Nuggets, against whom the season series is still up for grabs, would be huge.
How it Might Play Out
There are many permutations that could come to bear over each team’s last four games, but that’s not within the scope of this article to lay out. While I’m almost certain to be wrong, this is my best bet as to what the West’s top eight will look like on Sunday night, considering each team’s remaining schedule and the tiebreaker scenarios between each:
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14)
2. Houston Rockets (54-28)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (51-31)
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (50-32)
5. LA Clippers (49-33)
6. Golden State Warriors (49-33)
7. Memphis Grizzlies (49-33)
8. Denver Nuggets (48-34)
