I covered a lot of this in my article with a bit more of a betting lean here, but for the purposes of this article, we’ll just be talking about which team, between Florida and Houston, is simply going to outright win this game. Of course, with a spread as small as a single point, I’m essentially delivering a game pick and prediction, here. Having said that, we’ll use the stats and talk a bit more about momentum, and include analyses from our whole DKN College Hoops team on how the game might play out.
If you’re interested in an article with more of a betting lean with my take on the game, how I see it playing out, advanced stats, game script analysis—all that good stuff, just follow this link. Otherwise, let’s break down how this one-seed National Title game should play out as the capstone to March Madness.
For more, follow my handle @dansby_edits—you’ll see below that I called this Houston/Gators championship on my bracket!
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Who will win between Florida and Houston?
I’ve covered these teams for DKNetwork for a good bit now, with my first Houston write-up coming while UConn crumbled in the Maui Invitational last November, and my single biggest concern for Houston is their shot selection. I wrote this up in my game pick piece:
As for Houston’s offense, they’ve been inconsistent, particularly during stretches where they struggle to find a rhythm. L.J. Cryer’s shot selection has been questionable at times—his sometimes-erratic decision-making can hurt his team when they need a bucket the most. Without Cryer’s quick-fire shooting or Emanuel Sharp’s occasional hail-mary three-pointers, Houston’s offense has been prone to long scoring droughts. These cold spells have been masked by their defensive tenacity, sure. But, against Florida, such droughts are likely to be punished. Kelvin Sampson’s guys should have a bit of an easier time finding open looks against the Gators, who are notably smaller than the Cooper-Flagg-led Blue Devils. But it won’t be easy.
Generally, this is an area where I believe Florida’s offense as a whole has the capacity to pounce. But it’s true that Will Richard hasn’t always been at his best—some erratic shooting here and there, early foul trouble in the Texas Tech game—and Alijah Martin’s utility role in this offense narrows the backcourt production to Walter Clayton, Jr. heroics.
My colleague and our lead college basketball writer/editor (among many other things), Julian Edlow, is picking Houston to win the game. He says as much re. Florida’s over-reliance on Clayton this tournament. I’ve quoted an excerpt from his larger piece here:
That brings me to the coaching advantage here. Sampson has been doing this a long time, and this is his best chance to get over the hump and win a National Championship at age 69. The quick turnaround favors the Cougars, who have been strong in this spot all season and all tournament. After the first-round, Houston had to face arguably the greatest 8-seed in NCAA Tournament history in a Gonzaga team most metrics ranked top-10 in the nation. The Cougars jumped out to a 14-point lead, ultimately winning by five points in a game the Zags never led. After a battle against Purdue in the Boilermakers home state in the Sweet Sixteen, Sampson had a two-day turnaround to an elite Tennessee team in the Elite Eight. Houston led by as many as 22 points in a wire-to-wire victory that was never in doubt.
Meanwhile, 39-year-old Todd Golden and the Gators have had some issues with these quick tournament turnarounds. After a dominant first-round, UConn had Florida on the ropes two days later. The Gators trailed most of the second half, winning by just two points as nearly a double digit favorite. After dismantling a good Maryland team in the Sweet Sixteen, Texas Tech had Florida basically buried. The Gators trailed much of the game, and had to dig out of a 10-point hole with just a few minutes left. Each time we saw a combination of Florida’s opponent melting down, and some late heroics by Walter Clayton Jr. In the case of Houston, I trust the Cougars not to melt, and they should be as disciplined as any team in the country to at least give Clayton a tough time.
So what of the frontcourt, then? Alex Condon’s been spottier than I’d like to admit this tournament. Really, he’s been altogether outshined by Thomas Haugh, who’ll go down as a Florida legend for his tough and-one to seal the deal against Auburn in the Final Four. J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler will likely manhandle everyone but Rueben Chinyelu. But Roberts and Tugler are not immune to foul trouble. Javier Francis is a perfectly-capable sub-in (the Cougars have depth, too, everyone!), but I like his matchup against Florida less.
Bottom line
I really do love the Houston Cougars, and had them to win the title when Jamal Shead’s ankle gave out beneath the weight of the team in the Sweet Sixteen last year. Kelvin Sampson is my kind of coach, and I absolutely do not believe that what happened against Duke was simply luck. The Cougars notoriously put in late-game set piece practice for hours at a time before games. They are prepared for these moments in ways other teams are not.
What I do believe, however, is that the execution of all that preparation and work was handed to them by Duke—really, by a missed Cooper Flagg free throw on the front end of a one-and-one, and then a misguided over-the-back on J’Wan Roberts—far too easily, and far too quickly. Houston went from down one to up one simply in that sequence, and that was just enough for the Cougars to win.
Duke has similar depth to Florida, and Julian pointed that out as well. The Cougars withstood that. Something about the way Todd Golden utilizes his bench at the right time, though, has got me believing that depth is more a weapon for Florida.
By now we all know I’m on the Gators tonight—this team chose me this year, really, and I’ll see it through to the end—and Julian’s on the Cougars. My heart will do nothing but swell if the Cougars win, however. A championship for Kelvin Sampson feels right.
DKN Staff Picks
As for the rest of the DKN college hoops crew? Well:
Sean Barnard
Here’s what our man Sean Barnard—who’s got you covered on tonight’s player props—has to say of the game:
Expect Houston’s defense to be the takeaway from tonight’s game and the entire NCAA Tournament. They have held opponents to a CBB-best 58.5 points per game this season and make opponents earn every single point. Florida relies more on their offense for production but if Walter Clayton Jr. is unable to get rolling they will be in some trouble. Houston’s 39.9% three-point shooting as a team also leads the country and they have built a more balanced roster than years past highlighted by the offensive performances of LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp.
The pace of this game will play a major role in dictating the winner and expect the Cougars to be focused on playing this defensive-oriented style from the opening whistle. They did the improbable managing to produce the last-minute comeback over Duke by outscoring them 11-1 in the final 1:34 of play. Look for them to carry this momentum into tonight’s matchup and be focused on not putting their backs against the wall in this matchup. I like Houston to win at -105 of the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and also like Florida’s team total under at 70.5 for this National Championship matchup.
Keagan Smith – Staff Editor and Writer
This should be a fun matchup between a couple of squads that just refuse to die. Florida’s comeback against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight was impressive, though it feels as though the Red Raiders rolled over a bit in that one to give the game away. The Houston Cougars pulled off their own even more improbable come-from-behind win against the Duke in the Final Four, but theirs was arguably more impressive in that they flat-out smothered the Blue Devils down the stretch to snatch the victory from their opponents’ hands. Momentum like that makes all the difference. While Walter Clayton Jr.’s flamethrowing propels a fantastic Florida offense, Houston boasts the nation’s best defense for a reason — that’ll be the difference tonight. Is this a bit of a homer pick? Sure, but Kelvin Sampson deserves his first title and he’s got the team to finally do it this year. I’m taking the Cougs to win their first National Championship over the Gators tonight.
So—who you got?
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