The madness of March is nearly over as Florida and Houston will square off to battle in the National Championship. Both teams completed second-half comebacks in their Final Four matchups with Houston pulling off the fifth-largest comeback in Final Four history over Duke.
Houston will be attempting to win their first National Championship with this marking their third appearance on this stage. Florida makes their way back to the National Championship for the first time since their back-to-back championships in 2006 and 2007 with this being their fourth appearance in program history.
Florida enters the matchup as narrow -115 favorites on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Houston holds -105 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 141.5.
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This article will look at my top player prop picks as the two sides fight to be crowned the 2025 National Champion.
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Walter Clayton Jr to Record 21+ Points (-105)
You can’t get far when discussing the Florida Gators without bringing up Walter Clayton Jr. The scrappy guard has put the team on his back for stretches and will need to meet the challenge of this difficult Houston defense.
On the season overall, Clayton Jr is averaging 18.5 points, 4.1 assists, and 3.7 rebounds. He has proven to be at his best when the lights are the brightest and has spearheaded several necessary comeback efforts for this Gators team. Clayton is coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances against Auburn and Texas Tech. He has recorded 21+ points in 15 games this season including four of the five NCAA Tournament games.
While Clayton will surely be at the top of Houston’s defensive priorities, there will be enough offensive volume on his plate for him to still reach this total. He has averaged 13.5 field goal attempts per game on the season and launched 18 shots against Auburn.
Houston has held opponents to the fewest points per game and the worst field goal percentage of any team in the country. However, they rank 160th in three-point attempts allowed. Clayton is capable of getting red-hot from the perimeter and will not be shy to seek out these attempts. If Florida does go down, it will be on the back of Clayton with the Gators set to ride with what got them there. Count on Clayton to rise to the moment and record 21+ points for the fifth time in the six NCAA Tournament matchups.
J’Wan Roberts to Record 7+ Rebounds (-115)
The rebounding battle will be a major factor in who wins this game with J’Wan Roberts needing to set the tone for Houston. Roberts is averaging 6.5 rebounds per game on the season and has tallied 12 rebounds in two of the past three games. Despite measuring just 6-foot-7, Roberts is physically imposing and was the driving reason why Duke’s 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach was held without a rebound in the Final Four game and finished with a -20 plus/minus.
Roberts is also incredibly effective on the offensive glass. He is averaging 2.5 offensive rebounds per game this season and has pulled in 14 offensive boards across the past four games. This is a weakness for Florida as they allow 11.3 offensive rebounds per game which ranks 313th in the country. Texas Tech, who plays a similar style of basketball as Houston, produced 14 offensive rebounds against Florida already in this tournament.
In addition, Roberts’ role could grow in importance due to the status of Joseph Tugler. His front-court mate is battling an ankle injury and was limited to 25 minutes against Duke. Expect Roberts’ role and importance both to grow if Tugler is at all limited.
Roberts has tallied seven or more rebounds in 15 games this season with 12 rebounds logged in four different games. For the sake of the article, I am locking in Roberts to record 7+ rebounds at -115 odds. But this is also a game in which it could be worth taking a chance to ladder the props with Roberts to record 8+ rebounds at +155 odds, 9+ rebounds at +280 odds, and 10+ rebounds at +500 odds all holding some encouraging value.
Emanuel Sharp to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+130)
Houston will continue to hang their hat on the defensive end for their identity, but their improved shooting has been a key reason why they remain in the tournament. Emanuel Sharp has been a key part of this effort improving as a shooter across his three seasons with the Cougars. He has shot a career-best 41.5% from beyond the three-point arc this season while attempting 5.8 perimeter shots per game.
Florida has limited opponents to just 29.5% shooting from beyond the three-point arc which is the eighth-best rate in the country. However, they have allowed 22.7 three-point attempts per game which ranks 181st. Sharp will benefit from LJ Cryer being the biggest priority for the Florida defense and should have an easier pathway to creating his own offensive opportunities.
Sharp has connected with 3+ made three-pointers in back-to-back games entering this matchup and in 17 games overall this year. The 4-for-10 he shot from beyond the three-point arc against Tennessee was the most three-point attempts he has taken all year and he followed this up by shooting 3-for-7 against Duke. Sharp has had some of the best moments of his collegiate career on the NCAA Tournament stage including shooting 7-for-14 from beyond the three-point arc last year against Texas A&M.
While Houston’s defense will set the tone and give the Cougars a chance in this game, it will take them making some shots to ultimately lift the trophy. Count on Sharp to do his part and connect with at least three three-pointers for the third straight game.
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