We’ve got our last collection of home openers today, which means a slew of afternoon baseball. However, for the purposes of this article, we’ll be focusing on bets for you can for tonight’s slate of action on the diamond.
Why? Well, two reasons. First and foremost, it’ll give extra time for this article to live and collect ever-important clicks. Secondly, I slept in and now it’s too late to talk about the early contests. My bad, y’all.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Under 7.5 (-112)
Look, the Braves are eventually going to win a game. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was tonight. However, that doesn’t mean this lineup is going to be magically fixed. This is a roster currently missing Ronald Acuna Jr. and Sean Murphy due to injury. This is a roster that just lost its major free agent acquisition to a PED suspension. This is a roster that currently ranks dead-last in batting average (.151), wOBA (.227) and wRC+ (45). Red flag is an understatement.
It’s not like the Marlins are much better. Miami was projected by PECOTA to be the lowest-scoring team in MLB in 2025. Through seven games, that projection looks pretty smart, as the Marlins have managed a .120 ISO and a 90 wRC+. I’m not that afraid that Otto Lopez or Dane Myers is going to blow up this under, you know what I mean?
Finally, let’s talk about these starters. Spencer Schwellenbach entered the regular season as everyone’s dark-horse NL Cy Young pick, and he backed up this hype this past weekend, tossing six scoreless innings on the road in San Diego. In 22 career starts at the MLB level, Schwellenbach now owns a 3.19 ERA. Max Meyer can not claim the same level of success, yet the former third-overall pick did look amazing against the Pirates in his first outing of 2025. Meyer maintained a 1.89 xERA across 5.2 innings, striking out 30.4% of the opposing hitters he faced. Meyer has the stuff to be an ace and we might be seeing the beginning of a breakout campaign.
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Orioles ML (-105)
The Orioles were only an underdog 43 times in 2024. 43 times. That’s not a lot chances to bet them at a value, which means I’ll always be excited when the opportunity presents itself. I should also note, Baltimore won 53.5% of those 43 contests — the fourth-highest winning percentage as an underdog in all of baseball. What does any of this have to do with Friday, April 4, 2025? The Orioles are a slight underdog in Kansas City tonight.
To me, this seems like a perfect confluence of events to back Baltimore. Gunnar Henderson, the man who finished fourth in AL MVP voting last season with an 8.0 fWAR, is expected to return from the IL and make his season debut on Friday. Seth Lugo is on the mound for the Royals, a man who is already seeing his shocking 2024 numbers normalize after a single start in 2025. Lugo pitched to a 6.41 xERA against the Guardians last weekend, allowing three earned runs in just five innings. I’d expect more outings like that are on the horizon.
The last thing to consider with this bet is the state of the AL Central as a whole. Not a single team in the division sports a winning record and they’ve combined to start the season 4-15 in non-division matchups. We all know how stacked the AL East is, so think about this in college football terms. Orioles versus Royals is like a SEC school going up against a Sun Belt squad. Give me Baltimore all day.
