The UFC is back in Mexico City, and former flyweight champion No. 2 Brandon Moreno is fighting No. 8 Steve Erceg in the Main Event. This Fight Night takes place on March 29 with the Prelims starting at 4:00 p.m. ET and the Main Card beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Along with traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can now have more action than ever for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg! Check out DraftKings UFC Pick6! Here are my six favorite picks for Moreno vs. Erceg.
Brandon Moreno More Than 106.5 Significant Strikes
Moreno is fighting Erceg, who is on a two-fight losing streak. During Moreno’s last few fights, he has improved as a striker. Moreno has totaled more than 107 significant strikes in three straight bouts. Although Erceg is known for his striking, Moreno can go toe-to-toe with him in that area.
Erceg lands 0.38 more significant strikes per 15 minutes than Moreno while being five percent more accurate. But on the feet, Moreno absorbs only 3.53 significant strikes, which is much better than Erceg, who allows 4.22 per 15 minutes. Moreno has a two-inch reach advantage in this contest. If “The Assassin Baby” can use his reach to dictate the pace of this fight, he should be in for another successful striking performance.
Kelvin Gastelum More Than 50.5 Significant Strikes
Gastelum, the former title challenger, has won two of his previous three fights but is trying to win two straight fights for the first time since 2018. In his last fight, Gastelum landed 112 significant strikes. He has recorded more than 50.5 significant strikes in four of his previous five bouts.
A big reason his total might be set so low is the opponent he is facing. Gastelum is fighting Joe Pyfer, a big middleweight. Pyfer has a four-inch reach (75″ vs. 71″) advantage while standing four inches taller (6’2″ vs. 5’9″) than Gastelum. However, throughout Gastelum’s 12-year UFC career, he has faced many tough opponents. He has fought seven former UFC champions.
Although he doesn’t have the intangibles on his side, Gastelum is the more efficient striker, landing more significant strikes per minute. If Gastelum is aggressive and implements a good defensive plan, he should be able to hit this total in significant strikes.
Steve Erceg More Than 58.5 Fantasy Points
Steve Erceg will headline an event against a former champion in Moreno. Erceg’s strength of schedule is among the best in the UFC’s flyweight division. Two of his last three bouts will be against two of the most accomplished champions in this division’s history.
Erceg didn’t find much success in the Octagon against Kai Kara-France at UFC 305 in August 2024; he only had 3.6 fantasy points in that bout. He had scored more than 59 in his previous four contests. If Erceg can successfully defend takedowns, he should have a positive outing against Moreno. Erceg averages 4.37 significant strikes per minute, which is impressive.
Joe Pyfer Less Than 14:30 Fight Time
Pyfer, 28, is among the most exciting rising stars in the UFC’s middleweight division. He is 13-3 in his MMA career with 12 finishes and has only gone the distance twice. He is 4-1 in the UFC with four finishes in the first two rounds. When Pyfer steps into the Octagon, he is all action and always tries to get his opponent out of there as quickly as possible.
Yes, he is facing his toughest and most experienced opponent with Gastelum, but he matches up well against him. Pyfer can keep Gastelum at range with his longer reach advantage. If he does so, this fight will not last the full scheduled 15 minutes. Gastelum also has 12 finishes on his resume and will need to try to impress the UFC brass after his last two victories came by decision.
Drew Dober Less Than 5:30 Fight Time
Drew Dober has lost his last two fights, but is always ready to face any opponent in front of him. Dober indeed possesses that kill or be killed mindset when entering each bout. Three of his previous five contests have been under 5:30. Dober’s last seven wins have all come by finish.
Dober’s next opponent has shown he can match his mindset. Manuel Torres is 3-1 in the UFC with three first-round finishes. Torres is 15-3 in his MMA career with seven submissions and seven knockouts. During his career, 17 of Torres’ 18 MMA fights have ended in the first round. Although he doesn’t have as much experience in the UFC Octagon as Dober, he is dangerous on the feet and the ground. A finish shouldn’t be far from the second this bout begins with two exciting finishers.
Raul Rosas Less Than 6:30 Control Time
The 20-year-old is 4-1 in the UFC with three finishes in the first or second round. Rosas is a -530 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook against Vince Morales. Seeing his total of control time being 6:30 was surprising since he has only hit that mark once in his last five fights.
Rosas is an advanced fighter on the ground. When he takes opponents down, he usually doesn’t waste much time and gets to the finish quickly. Morales does have a 60 percent takedown defense, but that shouldn’t be a problem for Rosas, who has a high output with takedown attempts. Rosas is averaging 1.3 submissions per 15 minutes, and another finish should be in his future on Saturday.
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Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of 2+ players and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
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Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
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Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
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