I’ve already written up my beloved Gators against the Maryland Terrapins for their Sweet Sixteen game tonight here. But, otherwise, I’ve barely even touched these games! So I decided to run through some mini preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for all the Sweet Sixteen games I didn’t write up individually: Alabama vs. BYU, Duke vs. Arizona, and Arkansas vs. Texas Tech.
Here’s how I’m playing all the games tonight, both in terms of total and ATS. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Predictions and picks for every Sweet Sixteen Thursday game
Alabama vs. BYU Pick ATS
Alabama enters the Sweet 16 after a dominant victory over Saint Mary’s, where they shot 47.3% from the field and 38.5% from three, while stifling the Gaels to just 39.6% shooting and forcing 15 turnovers. The Crimson Tide’s defense remains their calling card, ranking 1st in defensive turnover rate (forcing turnovers on 21.7% of opponent possessions), and they’ve shown time and again that they can grind out victories with strong defense and efficient offense.
Meanwhile, BYU edged out Wisconsin 91-89 in a thrilling battle despite a stellar showing by Richie Saunders, who led the Cougars with key contributions. However, BYU’s defense has struggled to contain elite offensive teams, and Alabama’s superior defensive prowess and rebounding advantage (No. 14 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.9%) should prove too much for BYU to handle. Alabama’s ability to pressure and disrupt the Cougars’ offense while capitalizing on second-chance opportunities makes them the better team here.
Best bet: Alabama -4.5
Alabama vs. BYU Total Pick
Alabama’s relentless defense, holding Saint Mary’s to 39.6% shooting in their Round of 32 victory, is the key factor playing the under here. BYU, while efficient in their own right, had to engage in a shootout against Wisconsin, with both teams shooting over 50% from the field, but this isn’t typical for Alabama. Their defensive intensity, particularly in the half-court, will keep this game in check.
Additionally, BYU struggles at times with consistent shooting, ranking 122nd in effective field goal percentage (49.5%), which will likely stymie their offense against a top-tier Alabama defense. The under is the way to go here, given Alabama’s ability to stifle scoring and slow the game down when necessary.
Best bet: Alabama vs. BYU u175.5 total points
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Pick ATS
Arkansas’ defense was stifling against St. John’s in their Round of 32 game, holding them to just 28% shooting, including a paltry 9.1% from three-point range. This is a team that excels at creating turnovers (21% turnover rate) and limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities. Texas Tech, despite an efficient shooting performance (48.7% from the field, 36.5% from three) against Arkansas, didn’t have the defensive depth to stop the Razorbacks’ relentless pressure.
Arkansas’ length and athleticism in the paint, combined with superior rebounding (No. 7 in offensive rebounding percentage), will be the difference here. They will neutralize Texas Tech’s offensive depth and keep the game close. Arkansas can exploit Texas Tech’s half-court struggles (ranked 101st in adjusted offensive efficiency), making them a solid pick to cover the spread.
Best bet: Arkansas +5.5
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Total Pick
Arkansas’ ability to push the tempo, ranked seventh in points per possession (1.12 PPP), paired with Texas Tech’s offensive efficiency (No. 14 in offensive efficiency), means this game could produce a lot of points. Both teams score effectively, but more importantly, Arkansas ranks No. 8 in offensive rebounding percentage, giving them extra opportunities to score.
While Texas Tech can hang with Arkansas in terms of offensive production, Arkansas’ transition defense (ranked seventh nationally) should be able to slow Texas Tech’s pace, but it still won’t be enough to keep the total low. With both teams generating offense quickly, expect the game to go over.
Best bet: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech o147.5 total points
Duke vs. Arizona Pick ATS
Arizona has been firing offensively, ranking No. 18 in offensive efficiency (1.11 points per possession) and shooting 49.3% from the field and 36.2% from three. Their ability to stretch the floor forces Duke to adjust, especially with Azuolas Tubelis (19.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG), who anchors their inside presence, shooting 50.2% from two-point range (No. 29 nationally).
Arizona covered a 7.5-point spread in the Round of 32, showcasing their resilience and fast pace. With the No. 14 offensive rebounding percentage (37.6%) and Duke’s vulnerability to fast-paced teams, Arizona can limit Duke’s transition game while staying competitive in the half-court. Their offensive firepower and physicality will allow them to keep it tight and cover the +9.5 spread tonight.
Trust Arizona’s offense and rebounding to keep them within the spread.
Best bet: Arizona +9.5
Duke vs. Arizona Total Pick
Duke’s offensive firepower, paired with Arizona’s ability to score efficiently (averaging 77.3 PPG), sets this up for a high-scoring game. Duke’s offensive rating ranks No. 1 in adjusted efficiency (1.16 PPP), and their offensive depth, led by Tyrese Proctor and Cooper Flagg, will push Arizona’s defense to the limit.
Arizona has the tools to score, but their defensive inefficiencies (49.6% allowed on two-pointers, ranked 106th) will keep the pace fast and favor Duke’s attack. Duke’s transition offense, ranked 7th in the nation in fast-break points per game, will keep Arizona on their heels. This one’s going over.
Best bet: Duke vs. Arizona o154.5 total points
Florida vs. Maryland ATS Pick
Here’s a quote from my full write-up on this game, which has an article to itself:
Because Maryland’s defense, though solid, will struggle to keep pace with Florida’s offensive onslaught. The Gators’ well-rounded attack—backed by depth, athleticism, and the ability to dictate tempo—will overwhelm Maryland’s less versatile roster. Maryland might find success early, but Florida’s depth and defensive structure will impose their will, causing Maryland’s offensive rhythm to falter.
In the end, Florida’s depth, defensive firepower, and offensive execution will prove too much for Maryland. Their ability to shut down the Terrapins’ offense (Maryland ranks No. 245 in three-point shooting percentage in March Madness) and take full advantage of Maryland’s limited bench gives Florida a clear path to covering the spread. This game will be a showcase of Florida’s superiority in almost every phase of the game—and their ability to force turnovers (that 21.7% defensive turnover rate), control the glass (that +6.5 rebound margin), and dictate the pace will lead them to a comfortable victory.
Best bet: Florida -6.5 (-105)
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