It wasn’t without its blood pressure spike, but those of us with Maryland and Florida facing off in the Sweet Sixteen in the 2025 March Madness West region are sitting pretty headed into the second weekend. Gators fans will tell you their team just faced what might be their toughest test before the Final Four. Maryland fans will tell you their team can do anything, now. Indeed—after the R32 wins both these teams just had, there’s a certain joi de vivre to them (I will not say aura; seriously—I will not). Let’s see how that translates to the ol’ handicapping racket here in my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness Sweet Sixteen college basketball game between Florida and Maryland.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Florida vs. Maryland preview, prediction
With the backcourt of Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin leading the way, complemented by the interior presence and rebounding dominance of Alex Condon, Florida’s balance is their trademark. The Gators don’t just dominate—they dictate. They are the fifth-most efficient offense in the nation (1.188 points per possession), and defensively, they rank among the top 10 in adjusted efficiency, suffocating opponents with relentless pressure. They sit at No. 2 in offensive rebounding percentage (36.9%) and boast a ferocious defensive turnover rate, forcing turnovers on 21.7% of possessions in March Madness play.
Maryland, while also a formidable force, enters this matchup with question marks. The Terrapins, led by now-folk-legend Derik Queen (16.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Julian Reese, have been a powerful presence in the paint, but their depth—or lack thereof—could be a glaring weakness. The Crab Five do the heavy lifting, with each starter contributing over 12 points per game. But Maryland’s inability to consistently tap into their bench leaves them vulnerable, particularly when facing a team like Florida that thrives on offensive depth and rotational flexibility. Maryland’s bench contributes a paltry 15.5% of their total scoring (303rd nationally), and with a turnover margin of -1.7 when non-starters are on the floor in March Madness, their lack of depth could be their downfall.
Back to the bench minutes: The Gators rely on their bench for 22.5% of their total scoring, and their reserves play a solid 28.2% of the total minutes—ranking No. 65 in bench minutes nationally. This depth allows Florida to rotate more freely, ensuring their starters stay fresh while still maintaining a high level of play. On the other hand, Maryland’s bench is—well, see above. This stark contrast in bench usage gives Florida an edge in terms of maintaining energy throughout the game and being able to withstand the physical demands of a high-intensity Sweet 16 matchup.
Maryland vs. Florida pick, best bet
Ultimately, though, Florida’s defensive prowess will be the difference-maker in this game. The Gators have already demonstrated their ability to stymie high-powered offenses, limiting opponents to 31.4% from three-point range in their first two tournament games. With the Terrapins relying heavily on their starters for scoring, Florida’s ability to contain Maryland’s star players while rotating fresh defenders will wear down the Terrapins as the game progresses. Florida’s rebounding dominance (+6.5 rebound margin) and transition defense (No. 13 in fast-break points per game, 13.3) will stifle Maryland’s attempts to run and gun.
Because Maryland’s defense, though solid, will struggle to keep pace with Florida’s offensive onslaught. The Gators’ well-rounded attack—backed by depth, athleticism, and the ability to dictate tempo—will overwhelm Maryland’s less versatile roster. Maryland might find success early, but Florida’s depth and defensive structure will impose their will, causing Maryland’s offensive rhythm to falter.
In the end, Florida’s depth, defensive firepower, and offensive execution will prove too much for Maryland. Their ability to shut down the Terrapins’ offense (Maryland ranks No. 245 in three-point shooting percentage in March Madness) and take full advantage of Maryland’s limited bench gives Florida a clear path to covering the spread. This game will be a showcase of Florida’s superiority in almost every phase of the game—and their ability to force turnovers (that 21.7% defensive turnover rate), control the glass (that +6.5 rebound margin), and dictate the pace will lead them to a comfortable victory.
Focus on Maryland’s starting star power all you want. We know it’s depth that wins in March.
Best bet: Florida -6.5 (-105)
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