Yeah, so—this was obvious, right? We all knew I’d be writing up Condon for the Florida Gators’ Sweet Sixteen March Madness game against the Maryland Terrapins tonight. I can’t stop waxing poetic about this guy. Maybe it’s the pink shoes that keep me coming back—golly. I’ve already written up a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for the game here, but, specifically, we’ll be looking below at Alex Condon’s betting market for tonight. I think, especially after a few quiet-ish games in the R64 and R32, he’s poised to be a moneymaker on both the floor and the books tonight.
Here’s how I’ll play Condon tonight. I’ll also still be writing up predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Best Alex Condon prop bet for Florida vs. Maryland
Alex Condon 21+ Points + Rebounds + Assists
Alex Condon is primed to clear 21 points + rebounds + assists in tonight’s Sweet 16 battle with Maryland, and here’s why: The Gators’ star big man has been an absolute force, especially in the postseason. Condon’s return during Florida’s SEC Tournament run bolstered a team already brimming with talent, and his dominance inside has been evident ever since. In the SEC tournament, Condon posted 17.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game, leading Florida to a title. Over the last five games, including the tournament and March Madness, Condon has averaged an eye-popping 18.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 2.4 APG, translating to a total of 29.4 points + rebounds + assists per game—well above the 21-line.
In their Round 64 game against Norfolk State, Condon was unstoppable, racking up 22 points and 11 rebounds. He added four assists, too; he has an all-around game that can easily push his total over 21 tonight. Against UConn in the Round 32, where Florida faced their toughest competition so far, Condon posted 19 points and 8 rebounds, contributing 27 points + rebounds. Maryland’s defense, ranked No. 128 in defensive efficiency, has struggled to defend in the paint, allowing opponents to shoot 49.3% from two-point range (ranked No. 262 nationally). This plays directly into Condon’s strengths as a dominant inside scorer and physical rebounder. We are not concerned about Queen.
Condon’s ability to stay active on the glass (Florida ranks fifth in total rebound margin at +8.1), and his high-IQ playmaking from the post will give him ample opportunities to clear 20 ticks on the stat sheet. Maryland’s defense excels at limiting second-chance opportunities, which means Condon will have to work hard. But it still plays into the Gators’ overall advantage—Florida generates 36.9% of their points from offensive rebounds (14th nationally).
Maryland may grab 74.3% of their defensive rebounds, but Florida still ranks 12th in the nation in points per possession (1.17 PPP) and consistently pours in 38+ points in the paint per game. Their offensive rebounding is elite, sitting 14th nationally; they 36.9% of their missed shots to secure second-chance opportunities and further suffocate opposing bigs inside.
Condon’s synergy with Florida’s guards, particularly Walter Clayton Jr., who leads the team in assists, tees him up for easy scoring opportunities on open looks. Given his recent form, Maryland’s defensive vulnerabilities, and Condon’s matchup advantage inside, expect him to smash the 21 PRA threshold tonight.
Best bet: Alex Condon 21+ PRA (-110)
Tail the pink-shoed Aussie to light up the stat sheet tonight against the Terps with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
