March Madness returns for the Sweet Sixteen with another four game slate on Friday. Let’s breakdown some best bets and predictions on the card.
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No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State
Atlanta, GA – Friday 7:09pm ET
The Rebels have been coming out of the gates red-hot in the NCAA Tournament, leading North Carolina by 18 at halftime and Iowa State by 11. Ole Miss was the underdog in both of those games, and is priced as one yet again. Here we have an opportunity to take advantage of these hot starts by Chris Beard’s team against a Tom Izzo squad that’s been as slow out of the gates as anyone in the country.
Michigan State has been a second half wagon down the stretch of the season, but part of the reason its needed to be has been these dreadful starts. Since February 1, Sparty is an absurd 2-14 1H ATS, with the only covers coming in the regular season finale against Michigan, the their Big Ten Tournament opener against Oregon. In the NCAA Tournament, they trailed early to Bryant before taking just a five-point lead into the break, and trailed New Mexico at the half. By trailing the Lobos at halftime on Sunday, it marked the ninth time Michigan State has been losing the game at halftime when priced as the favorite during that span going back to February 1.
I love the way Ole Miss is playing right now, and lean to them in the game here. High seeds in the NCAA Tournament that were not ranked in the preseason top-25 tend to fall apart as the tournament goes on, and Izzo’s roster fits into that trend. That said, due to how strong the first half trends are here, I think taking the points with the Rebs for 1H is the better play in the game.
Sparty has been tremendous in the second half of games, though. So pending how this one looks, don’t be surprised if we switch rooting interests at halftime and make a play on Michigan State if the first half goes our way.
March Madness Pick: Ole Miss 1H +1.5 (-105) 1.5-units
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Indianapolis, IN – Friday 7:39pm ET
Kentucky and Tennessee will meet for the third time in the last two months on Friday night, this time with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. The Wildcats took both of the earlier matchups outright, priced as underdogs in each game. Kentucky won both of them without Lamont Butler, making it even more impressive, winning as a road dog of 10.5-points and a home dog getting 3.5-points.
That should have the Vols fired up for this one, and I’m expecting them to set the tone early in terms of dictating pace. The Wildcats play at a top-25 tempo and rank top-10 in offensive efficiency, but the familiarity factor here could wind up slowing the game down. These teams know each other well, and coming off a pair of losses in this matchup, it should be super important for Tennessee to dictate how this game goes. The Vols rank 346th in tempo and have a top-five defense, and I expect their game plan to play to that.
On top of Tennessee wanting to slow things down against a team they’ve seen twice recently, Sweet Sixteen unders in the first half of games has been a strong trend recently. Over the last seven years of Sweet Sixteen games, first half unders have gone 28-18-2, per Bet Labs. This game will also be played at the only Sweet Sixteen location that’s being played at a football dome — Lucas Oil Stadium. We know that can be a bit of an issue in terms of sight lines, and it would be nearly impossible for Kentucky to shoot it as well as it did the first two times in this matchup. The Wildcats shot exactly 12-for-24 from downtown in each meeting against the Vols, which is absurd. Tennessee is generally a good team defending the 3-point line as well. Combine that with the familiarity of these SEC foes, I think we have enough here to fire on a slow start to the game.
March Madness Pick: Kentucky/Tennessee 1H UNDER 68.5 (-120) 1-unit
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston
Indianapolis, IN – Friday 10:09pm ET
I haven’t made a straight play on this game, although Houston moneyline is my favorite parlay leg on the card if you’re looking for one. But I did put out a play on Houston to win a pair of games in Indy and advance to the Final Four, which would need to be placed prior to this one tipping off. You can find that play here on DK Network.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
