The Houston Cougars had a dominant season in their second year in the Big 12, claiming both the regular season and conference tournament crowns. Now the Cougs head into the big dance with an even larger prize in mind. Let’s breakdown how deep this team can go in March.
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To Reach the Elite Eight: Houston (-145)
The Cougars are a gritty, tournament-tested team that’s done nothing but dominate the Big 12 since shifting into the conference. They take on the personality of their head coach, and Kelvin Sampson doesn’t let this team take its eye off the prize. It reminds me a lot of how Rick Pitino has Saint John’s playing in the Big East, in the sense of there simply are not down spots. Every time Houston seemed due for a loss, it just dug deep and found a way to win. The Cougars wound up finishing with an insane 10-0 record in true road games.
Houston is well known for its defense, and that didn’t drop off this season. The Cougars ranked second in the nation in defensive efficiency, which has always been its calling card. What makes them so much more dangerous this season is the improvement on the other side of the floor to become top-10 in offensive efficiency. When Houston lost tournament games it shouldn’t have in the past it was the offense getting stuck in mud. That shouldn’t be the case anymore.
Houston not only is capable of beating anyone in the country (14-3 record in Quad 1 games), but it also rarely takes a bad loss, going 16-1 in all other games. That’s an important component here in terms of winning three games to reach the Elite Eight. A potential second-round matchup against Gonzaga is about as tough of a matchup as you can ask for as a 1-seed. Some metrics rank the Zags as a top-10 team. While Mark Few and company will try to push the pace, I trust Houston’s defense to win that matchup, and the Cougs would have a massive offensive advantage against Gonzaga’s defense.
A Sweet Sixteen matchup against the likes of Clemson or Purdue would be an easier task than the Zags, and I think Houston would be a 7-8 point favorite in this potential second-round game. That’s enough for me to lay some juice on Houston to advance to the Elite Eight, and personally my bracket will have it going much further.
Elite 8 Pick: Houston (-145) 2-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
