The Sweet Sixteen is here, and the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is in the books! The second of two matchups in the Regional Semifinal is No. 1 Duke vs. Arizona at 9:39 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 27. This is the second matchup between the two teams, as the Blue Devils beat the Wildcats by 15 points in November.
Here is my pick for Thursday’s Sweet Sixteen matchup between the Blue Devils and the Wildcats.
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Duke vs. Arizona (9:39 p.m. ET)
Duke beat Baylor by 23 points in the Round of 32 last week. The Blue Devils were led by guard Tyrese Proctor, who scored 25 points and made seven three-pointers. Star freshman Cooper Flagg totaled 18 points, nine rebounds, and six assists against the Bears.
Although Duke beat Arizona 69-55 this season, it was the Wildcats’ fourth game. Since then, Arizona has significantly improved and has recently won four of its previous five games. In November against Duke, Arizona shot it very poorly from the field (39.6%) and with three-pointers (26%). KJ Lewis and Jaden Bradley were Arizona’s only two players who scored double-digit points against Duke in November. Caleb Love finished that contest with eight points on 3-13 shooting from the field.
Even though Love didn’t perform well against Duke at the beginning of the season, he has been on fire recently. Love has scored 19 or more points in three of his last four games. His most recent outing was his best of the season. Love totaled 29 points, nine rebounds, and four assists on an incredible 5-7 shooting from long range. Arizona is a +9.5 underdog against Duke in the Sweet Sixteen on DraftKings Sportsbook. But if the Wildcats get the version of Love who showed up against Oregon, they can beat anyone.
Duke’s offense is very good with Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Proctor leading the way, but their defense has been shutting opponents down in the last two months. The Blue Devils haven’t allowed more than 71 points to an opposing team since January 11.
Arizona is 6-5 against Duke and has won three of the previous four matchups. The last time these teams met in the NCAA tournament, the Wildcats won 93-77 in the Sweet Sixteen in 2011. This matchup will occur at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The last time Duke and Arizona played in New Jersey was in 1989; the Wildcats won that contest 77-75.
Yes, Duke has had a better season and has already beaten Arizona, but this is a new and improved Wildcat team compared to the one they saw in November. Getting Arizona +9.5 is an excellent play because if Tobe Awaka and Henri Veesaar can dominate the glass, Arizona has a legit chance to upset No. 1 Duke.
College Basketball Pick: Arizona +9.5
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