With all due respect to the First Four, the NCAA Tournament gets underway on Thursday afternoon, as we dive full throttle into a 16-game slate. Here are my best bets on Thursday’s card.
Make sure you’re keeping your eyes on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits when doing your research, available for free on DK Network.
You can also follow along to get some of my college basketball picks earlier, along with other DK Network analysts, by joining the DKN Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook. Just click here to join for free if you haven’t already.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU
Denver, CO – Thursday 4:05pm ET
VCU is shaping up to be a popular upset pick in this one, taking some early money when the board opened, and advancing in a lot of bracket pools. I have a lot of respect for what the Rams accomplished this season, and a lot of metrics are very high on this team — particularly on the defensive end, where they rank 23rd in defensive efficiency.
VCU rolled through the Atlantic 10 this season, but hasn’t been playing its best basketball of late. The Rams are on a 1-4 ATS skid, including an outright loss earlier this month as a 9.5-point favorite. As a Rhody Ram, I’m an A-10 guy myself, but this certainly was not a good conference this season. VCU hasn’t been priced as an underdog since back in December, when it lost to New Mexico by seven points and a four-point dog. The Rams are 0-2 as an underdog this season, also losing to Nevada as a short 1.5-point dog. VCU just hasn’t seen much legit competition this season, even falling to Seton Hall as a seven-point favorite in its only crack at a Big East team.
Meanwhile, BYU has faced elite competition on a nightly basis in the Big 12. The Cougars turned the corner back on January 21 with a win at Colorado, finishing the season on a 13-3 run. Since then, they’ve arguably been a top-10 team in the country. BYU has won its last four games when priced as an underdog, and have won four of its last five games when favored by five or fewer points.
The Cougars rank 11th in offensive efficiency, and are frankly unlike anything VCU has gone up against. While this isn’t exactly a BYU home game, we can expect the crowd to be in their favor in Denver. Playing at elevation could also play into the Cougs’ favor in this one, especially when we factor in their depth. At a price short enough to play on the moneyline, BYU will be one of my top plays on the opening Thursday of the tournament.
March Madness Pick: BYU ML (-142) 3-units
No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 8 Gonzaga
Wichita, KS – Thursday 4:35pm ET
The Zags opened up laying 4.5 against the fellow Bulldogs, and were quickly bet up to 6.5 before settling in the 5.5/6 range. While UGA is a tough team, and very well tested out of the mighty SEC, it also got a very tough draw here. Gonzaga landed an 8-seed in this tournament, but many metrics also grade the Zags out as a top-10 team in the country — 9th in KenPom and 8th in the NET.
I’ll be using the Zags as my top moneyline parlay piece in the opening rounds, and will pair them with at least a couple of other teams I like to win outright — one play even coming in Wednesday’s NIT action. Both Bulldog teams rank pretty evenly defensively, with UGA 26th in defensive efficiency and Gonzaga 29th. However, Georgia doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Zags, who rank in the top-10 in offensive efficiency, compared to just 54th for UGA.
Gonzaga has the experience, with this being the 24th NCAA Tournament appearance for Mark Few, who’s made nine consecutive runs to the Sweet Sixteen or further. While I think that streak comes to an end at the hands of Houston, the Zags have more than enough to get out of the first-round here, in a much more lopsided 8-seed vs. 9-seed matchup than we’re accustomed to.
While Georgia will try to slow the pace in this one, I’m not sure it will matter unless Gonzaga is really off its game. The Zags have a +7.0 rebounding margin this season, compared to -2.3 for Georgia. If an already significantly more efficient Gonzaga offense also finds itself getting more second chances, the Zags should break away in this game.
March Madness Pick: Gonzaga/George Mason MLP (-115) 1-unit
March Madness Pick: Gonzaga/UCLA MLP (+100) 1-unit
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 7 Kansas
Providence, RI – Thursday 7:10pm ET
John Calipari versus Bill Self in the first round of the NCAA Tournament? What more could we ask for? Coach Cal and the Hogs got off to a rough start in his first season at the helm, but they’ve steadily improved of late. Kansas, the preseason No. 1 overall, has been trending in the opposite direction.
The Jayhawks played well at home this season, per usual, finishing with a 14-3 record. But they went just 7-9 SU/ATS in road and neutral games combined, really struggling to put it all together. Just going off recent performance against the market in the second half of the season, Kansas limps in on a 6-12 ATS skid, while Arkansas has picked it up to go on a 10-2-1 ATS run.
The numbers on these two teams are pretty comparable on the whole, which pushes me towards the hotter team that’s getting the points, and feels to be playing with house money. As is typically the case with a Coach Cal team, it has the talent to compete with anybody, and has shown that over the past couple of months. The Hogs took down Vandy, Texas (twice), Missouri and Kentucky since the start of February, and even pushed Auburn and Alabama down to the wire in narrow losses.
I played Arkansas +5.5 on Selection Sunday in the DK Network betting group, and am comfortable betting them down to +3.5. I have the Razorbacks advancing in my bracket, and wouldn’t at all be surprised to see them move on to the next round if you’re bold enough to fire on some moneyline.
March Madness Pick: Arkansas +5.5 (-110) 1.5-units
No. 10 Utah State vs. No. 7 UCLA
Lexington, KY – Thursday 9:25pm ET
UCLA is one of the teams I’m pairing with the Zags on a moneyline parlay, as well as Oregon to advance on Friday — which I’ll cover in Friday’s article. Utah State is a solid team, but I think a gritty UCLA squad will prove too much to handle. Of course, we know the numbers on the Mountain West Conference … it’s been abysmal, both against the spread and outright in the NCAA Tournament in recent seasons. I don’t want to harp too much on that, because I am buying in on Colorado State, but also we all watched what North Carolina did to San Diego State on Tuesday night.
The Aggies can keep up offensively, ranking 17th in offensive efficiency. But getting stops will be a different story, as Utah State’s defensive efficiency checks in at 149th in the country. That’s going to create a tough matchup against a far more balanced UCLA roster, which ranks 35th in offensive efficiency, and even better on the defensive side at 17th. If the Bruins control the pace of this game, I expect them to limit the Aggies firepower on offense. Then the real disadvantage comes in stopping UCLA, as Utah State’s defense just is not equipped. The Bruins went 9-8 in Quad 1 games this season, whereas Utah State failed every big test, going 0-3 in Quad 1 games.
The Aggies’ best win away from home came back in December against St. Mary’s, but they’ve come up short by a pretty wide margin in all of their recent big games. Utah State has lost its last four away from home as an underdog, all since February 16. The three most recent ones (Colorado State twice and Boise State) all had point spreads of 4.5 of less, but the Aggies lost each game by double digits (and by an average of more than 18 points).
I trust a more discipline and well-coached UCLA team to get through to the next round.
March Madness Pick: Gonzaga/UCLA MLP (+100) 1-unit
March Madness Pick: UCLA/Oregon MLP (-125) 1-unit
No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan
Denver, CO – Thursday 10:00pm ET
UCSD is becoming maybe the most trendy upset pick of this tournament, and a quick glance at the numbers makes it easy to see why. The Tritons are 36th in KenPon and 35th in NET, ranking only about 10 spots behind Michigan in each. UCSD ranks 57th in offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive efficiency, both of which are very impressive coming out of the Big West.
The Tritons also boast numbers like 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season, even going 5-1 outright in those game. But let’s look deeper at the competition — four of those wins came against La Salle, James Madison, Toledo and UC-Santa Barbara before we knew exactly how good this team was. UCSD was getting a similar number to what they are in this one, going up against the Big Ten Tournament Champs. I’ll give the Tritons credit for defeating Utah State as a double digit dog in their best win of the season, but even the Aggies don’t quite measure out to the level of competition of the Wolverines. The other game as an underdog was the season opener against San Diego State, which they lost, but did cover as a double digit dog.
The Tritons rank 271st in tempo, so they’re really going to try to muck this game up. But they were also 180th in strength of schedule, and are really stepping up in weight class here. While UCSD has played well as an underdog, this is a completely different animal. Michigan comes with plenty of its own issues, but has a pretty balanced attack, and ranks 14th in defensive efficiency. That’s going to lead to some tough possessions for the Tritons, particularly factoring in the twin towers of Danny Wolfe and Vlad Golden, who should be a problem on both ends.
While the Wolverines had some trouble covering as a larger favorite, they were spectacular in close games. This reminds me a bit of a game from the NCAA Tournament three years ago — South Dakota State vs. Providence in 2022. The Jackrabbits were everyone’s upset pick, and closed a 2.5-point favorite against a good Friars squad coached by Ed Cooley. Providence ultimately jumped out to an early lead and won the game by nine points, and I think we see a similar script in this one. Dusty May has been doing a spectacular job turning this program around right away, and has shown the ability to produce in this tournament, taking FAU to the Final Four just a couple of years ago.
UCSD opened a 4.5-point underdog and has been bet down short enough that we can just play Michigan on the moneyline as one of my top wagers for Thursday.
March Madness Pick: Michigan ML (-142) 3-units
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Apple or Google!
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
