With this article, I’m highlighting the new Systems feature available in DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub. Check out the feature for yourself to find appealing systems in play this week!
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System: Under on total when an AFC team is a non-conference favorite
This play has had a 57% success rate to start 2023. A strong number, but it’s actually low for how this play has performed the last couple seasons.
Including the first four weeks of this season, this system is 60-29-1 since 2021. That’s an absurd 66.7% success rate. Take out the seven games from this season that apply to this system and that number jumps up to 67.5%.
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This system applies to the following games on Sunday:
- MIA vs. NYG
- NE vs. NO
- CIN @ ARI
- KC @ MIN
Some other notable stats that apply to these games:
- The under is 7-1 since 2021 when the Giants are playing as a non-conference underdog.
- The under is 7-2 since 2021 when the Saints are playing as a non-conference underdog.
- The under is 7-3 since 2021 when the Chiefs are playing as a non-conference favorite.
- The under is 5-1 since 2021 when the Patriots are playing as a non-conference favorite.
KC-MIN is my preferred play from the Sunday group. The under is 2-2 since 2021 when Minnesota is a non-conference underdog, but the under is also 1-3 in Vikings games this season.
System: Non-conference favorites ATS
This system doesn’t have the same multi-season history as the others, but it’s off to a significant start at 8-4-2 this season (64.29%).
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This system applies to the same games from the Total system mentioned above, along with ATL vs HOU.
Now, despite what I just noted about this system not having multi-season history, there is a subset of plays within this system that does. AFC teams that are playing as a non-conference road favorite are 22-14-2 ATS (57.9%) since 2021. That stat applies to the Chiefs and Bengals this weekend. Oddly enough, those are two of the best teams in this system since 2021, with KC being 3-0 ATS and CIN 3-1 ATS.
Even though the Bengals are a gross 0-3-1 ATS this season, I view both plays similarly. Only caveat on CIN: The Bengals have a tough number at -3, so it may be worth sacrificing payout for the extra half point.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
