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System: Under on total when the home team is an underdog
Going into Week 9, the under is 31-20 (60.78%) when the home team is playing as an underdog. And if you waited until Week 5 to get in on this play, you managed to avoid some growing pains. Over the last four weeks, the under is 16-9 (64%) when the home team is the underdog.
Of course, 60.78% is a hard hit rate to maintain. But, this play hit 65.3% of the time in 2022 after coming through 55% of the time in 2021.
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There are two games this system applies to:
(tail this bet by clicking the play above)
LAC-NYJ is my preferred play of the two, but I expect to play both. The only reason that game gets the slight edge over IND-CAR is the Colts are 6-2 to the over this season.
System: Under on total when an AFC team is a non-conference favorite
We’re turning back to this system as one of the best on the board. Prior to Week 8, the play was 11-7, but then it popped off to bring its season-long hit rate to 65.22% (15-8). One thing that stands out big-time with this play: Week 7 was the only week in which this play had multiple misses.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, 65.22% is a hard number to maintain. However, this system play came through 64.4% of the time in 2022 and 71.1% of the time in 2021.
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Here are the games this system applies to:
- HOU vs. TB
- NE vs. WAS
- CLE vs. ARI
- BAL vs. SEA
- IND at CAR
- LV vs. NYG
(tail this bet by clicking the play above)
As mentioned when highlighting the other system, IND has been heavy to the over this season. Still a play worth consideration — especially since it’s a multi-system match — but it’s not my favorite of this bunch either.
The under is 3-0 when the Giants are playing as non-conference dogs. The under is 1-1 when the Raiders are in this situation, but they’re obviously going through a significant amount of change, which helps this play against an opponent that’s been a good team for this system.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
