Some of the NBA’s brightest stars are in action during the March 5 slate. Despite just seven games tipping off, some of the league’s best — including the top three favorites to win the Most Valuable Player award — will all take the court.
All three — Nikola Jokić ($12,200), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800) — are must-starts every time they suit up, but to keep things more interesting, I’ll only select one of them. Here are Antetokounmpo and two others who I think need to be in your lineup tonight.
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PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Dallas Mavericks, $11,000
Mavericks fans have had a rough month. First, they traded Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis ($9,900), who subsequently got injured in his first game with the team. Then, Daniel Gafford ($7,100) suffered a knee sprain. Finally, two nights ago, Kyrie Irving tore his ACL and is done for the season. Dallas does have its first-round pick this season, so it might be able to fall into the lottery and hope for enough luck to jump into the top four. Without Irving, the Mavericks don’t have a chance to compete for anything this season, and it might be prescient to shut Davis down too.
Gafford suffered his injury on February 10, and while Dallas has gone a respectable 4-5 since — including the game he got hurt — it’s clearly not better off without big men. In their last nine games, the Mavericks have had a below-average defense and also have had the second-lowest rebounding percentage, better than only the Victor Wembanyama-less San Antonio Spurs. Across that span, they’ve given up 57.3 points in the paint per game, the highest in the league, as well as the second-most second-chance points. That’s a fantastic mismatch for Antetokounmpo, who averages a league-high 20.2 points in the paint and the 10th-most second-chance points per game.
SF/PF Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, $8,200
Instead of Gilgeous-Alexander, I’m going to go with his All-Star running mate, who is currently on the best scoring run of his career. Williams has netted at least 20 points in each of his last five games, the longest such streak of his career. Over those five games, he’s averaging 26.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.8 assists (45.2 FPTS) per contest. His hot stretch has been bolstered by excellent shooting form; across his streak, he’s converting 49.5% of his shots and 44.1% of his threes. I back his shooting accuracy to continue, especially since Memphis has allowed opponents to hit threes at the seventh-highest rate in basketball since the All-Star break.
For the season, the Grizzlies have a respectable defense, with the league’s 11th-best defensive rating. But since the All-Star break, they’ve given up points in bunches, posting the second-worst defensive rating in the league, better than only the flailing Philadelphia 76ers. Memphis has lost three consecutive games on game-winning shots in the waning seconds, giving up 130 or more points three times in its past four games. To make matters worse, Defensive Player of the Year favorite Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,100) suffered an ankle injury against the Atlanta Hawks and will miss at least a week. Even with Jackson, the Grizzlies had given up the most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. I can’t see how they’ll do any better without him.
SG/SF Zach LaVine, Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets, $7,900
With Sacramento’s best player, center Domantas Sabonis ($9,400), sidelined with a hamstring injury, the onus will fall squarely on LaVine’s shoulders to fill the void. He has already led the team in usage rate since he arrived in a trade deadline deal from the Chicago Bulls and has scored 20 or more points in seven of his 10 games with the team, including each of the last four. Since touching down in California’s capital, LaVine has averaged 22.5 points (39.4 FPTS) per game on 50-40-90 shooting splits. He didn’t shoot the ball a ton in the Kings’ most recent matchup, since they blew out Dallas, but he’ll have to fire away more tonight in order to beat Denver, especially if Malik Monk ($7,700) can’t play through his toe sprain.
The Nuggets have allowed the third-most points to opposing shooting guards this season and have posted the league’s 11th-worst defensive rating since the All-Star break. In particular, Denver has been the worst team in the league at preventing opponents from racking up assists, and although it has cleaned it up somewhat since the All-Star break, the Nuggets are still a dream matchup for guards in general. LaVine isn’t a typical passing guard — instead, he’s a microwave scorer — but without Sabonis, he might take on more playmaking responsibility. In the two games since Sabonis’ injury, LaVine has ranked second on the team in touches and third in potential assists.
