As the road to the playoffs ramps up, tonight is a more modest offering of NBA action, with just five games on tap. The nationally-televised clash is an epic big-man battle between the Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic ($12,300) and the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700), but besides that, the other four games are interesting too.
Some of the best centers in the league are in action tonight, so DFS players will have plenty to choose from. Let’s take a look at my top three:
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st].
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets ($10,700)
This is the rare occasion when Jokić is on the slate and I’m not choosing him, because Antetokounmpo is the only player on Jokić’s level, and he’s $1,800 cheaper. The defensive metrics are impressive — opponents shoot 5.7 percentage points worse within six feet of the basket when guarded by Antetokounmpo, the 26th-best among 105 players who have guarded at least four such tries per game and appeared in at least 40 games this season. He also just has a pretty good history against his rival; although Jokić has gotten the better of him a few times, he’s also scored fewer than 20 points twice since starting his MVP-level prime, and Antetokounmpo has scored 27 or more points against Jokić every time he’s faced him since 2018.
On a team level, Milwaukee’s defense is just better than Denver’s. This season, the Nuggets have allowed the eighth-most points and most assists per game, while the Bucks have allowed the 12th-fewest points and ninth-fewest assists. Denver rebounds a lot better than Milwaukee does, but Antetokounmpo — who’s sixth in the league in rebounding this season, three spots behind Jokić — can command the glass against anyone.
2. Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans ($9,000)
Durant’s eligibility at center is somewhat dubious, given that he’s played just 23% of his minutes in the middle this season, according to Basketball Reference’s Player Position Estimate. But some of the more expensive traditional centers — such as Charlotte’s Mark Williams ($7,700) — aren’t that trustworthy, especially recently. Since his nixed trade to the Los Angeles Lakers, Williams has averaged just 25.5 FPTS per game, not enough to justify his price tag. Although the Suns as a whole are a disaster and even Durant had an off-game on Sunday in Toronto, he’s one of the most consistent players in NBA history, and he expectedly bounced back on Tuesday with a 26-point, eight-rebound, seven-assist (48.0-FPT) performance.
He should especially have no problem producing against a New Orleans team that has allowed the fifth-most points, fourth-most rebounds, fourth-most assists, 10th-most steals, and eighth-most blocks to opposing players. Rookie center Yves Missi ($4,700) has been repeatedly torched by opposing big men, even if he’s had a decent season overall, and he’s conceded the most fantasy points to the center position this season.
3. Wendell Carter Jr., Orlando Magic vs. Golden State Warriors ($5,200)
Carter isn’t a typical stat-stuffer; for the most part, Franz Wagner ($8,400) and Paolo Banchero ($8,200) do most of the heavy offensive load for a Magic team that has been pretty awful since the start of January. But amid the turmoil in Orlando, Carter has earned his starting spot back over Goga Bitadze ($4,700), who played just seven minutes in the Magic’s 122-82 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday. Since the All-Star break, Carter has averaged 9.8 points and 10.3 rebounds (26.8 FPTS) per game, making him a solid value play for his relatively cheap price tag. He’s also recorded two combined steals and blocks in each of his last three games.
Golden State’s turnaround has been quite impressive since adding Jimmy Butler ($7,600); the Warriors are 6-1 with the league’s second-best net rating since Butler made his debut. They’ve even given up the third-fewest points, fifth-fewest rebounds, and fewest assists across that span. It’s getting to the point where it’s a large enough sample size for me to be convinced that it’s real, but until then, I’m willing to take a chance on Carter, given that Golden State has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season overall. The Warriors are still undersized, even if motivated.
