In the return from the All-Star Break, the NBA is hitting us with just a single game on tap, as the Charlotte Hornets will visit the Los Angeles Lakers, a game previously postponed by the wildfires that devastated the Los Angeles area in January. Both of these teams look significantly different than they did when they were originally scheduled to play, of course, with Luka Dončić now a Laker and Dalton Knecht now…still a Laker.
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PG LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers, $9,800
The biggest question with the Hornets this season has not been how Ball will play, but if he will play at all. The 23-year-old has been excellent when he’s been on the floor — averaging 27.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game — but he’s only been available for 33 of Charlotte’s 52 games. Since he’s healthy for tonight’s game — he carries a probable designation with right ankle soreness — he should be a no-brainer as one of only seven players to average 25 points, five rebounds, and five assists per game, and he’s cheaper than either LeBron James ($10,200) or Luka Doncic ($10,600), who I’m going to stay away from until he has a great game in Los Angeles, although (to be clear) I’m not particularly concerned.
It won’t necessarily be easy for Ball, even though the Lakers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. Over its last 10 games, Los Angeles has allowed just 110.5 points per 100 possessions, the fourth-stingiest defense in the league, and it’s won eight of those 10 games. And, for all that Nico Harrison said about Dončić’s defense, opponents shot 0.7 percentage points worse than usual against him in 22 games with Dallas this season. Still, Ball has the highest usage rate in the league and should have no problem firing up shots with reckless abandon.
PG/SG Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Hornets, $8,400
In the last few seasons, Reaves has developed from G-League material to solid role player to starter to borderline star. He’s fearless and plays with the right attitude 100% of the time, and his shooting and passing make him an ideal complement to James and Dončić. Since January 1, he’s averaged 20.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game, including a 45-point explosion against the Indiana Pacers on February 8, although both James and Dončić missed that game. In two games playing alongside Dončić, he scored 22 and 15 points, respectively, although he has averaged as many touches as James across that span — significantly more than Dončić — and is also second on the Lakers in potential assists.
Maybe Dončić’s improved fitness — after a week off, he should be in better basketball condition than he was during his first two games with Los Angeles — will relegate Reaves to a smaller role, but I think he’ll continue to benefit from the spacing created by his teammates’ playmaking brilliance. He’s a great off-ball mover and should be able to dive to the rim for easy looks, and if the Lakers want to win a championship in James’ 22nd season (they currently have +1800 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook), Reaves will be an integral part of it. This season, the Hornets have been good against opposing shooting guards but have a merely average defense overall.
PG/SG Bronny James, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Hornets, $1,000
I can’t believe I’m putting a 20-year-old averaging 1.4 points, 0.4 rebounds, and 0.5 assists (3.2 FPTS) per game on a must-starts list, but it’s more about who you can put in the lineup with him than about James himself. Because his salary is the same as all four injured players, he’s basically free. With Bronny James occupying your fifth spot, you can make Ball your captain and still have room for LeBron James, Dončić, one of Reaves, Mark Williams ($8,600), or Miles Bridges ($8,800), and a high-upside piece like Jordan Goodwin ($4,600), who scored 17 points and added eight rebounds (33.0 FPTS) on February 10 against the Utah Jazz. You’re not going to get incredible production out of the deep bench guys on either squad, so you might as well go with the cheapest player available and take Bronny.
Plus, although Charlotte hasn’t been blown out too many times this season, especially with Ball on the floor, it’s always a possibility that this game gets out of hand — either if Ball shoots the lights out and the Hornets win easily or, more likely, if Ball shoots horribly and Charlotte has no means of offensive production besides him, a Los Angeles blowout — and garbage time minutes means Bronny minutes. He’s played pretty well in the G-League as of late — in five regular season games, he’s averaged 22.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 2.2 steals per game on 43-39-79 shooting splits — and he had his best career NBA game his last time out, scoring nine points (11.5 FPTS) in a road loss to Utah.
