Two seasons ago, the Philadelphia Eagles made it all the way to Super Bowl LVII to face the Kansas City Chiefs behind star quarterback Jalen Hurts and one of the best one-two wide receiver punches in football, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but they fell short in a 38-35 thriller. Brown (six catches, 96 yards, and a touchdown) and Smith (seven catches, 100 yards) weren’t the problem, but regardless, they’ll be hungry for revenge in the rematch on Sunday.
Both players are tremendous athletes, and they’ll need to show up if Philadelphia wants to exact redemption. But which player is a better asset in DraftKings’ flagship DFS contest, Super Bowl Millionaire? A.J. Brown ($14,400 Captain, $9,600 FLEX) is the more expensive player, but I’d argue that DeVonta Smith ($11,100 Captain, $7,400 FLEX) has better value.
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Brown had the better regular-season stats, racking up 67 catches, 1,079 yards, and seven touchdowns and finishing as Pro Football Focus’ fourth-ranked wideout. But Smith — who had 68 catches, 833 yards, and eight scores of his own — wasn’t far behind and provides better value, since he’s $2,400 cheaper. He’s also been the more consistent player in the postseason so far, hauling in all four of his targets in each of the Eagles’ postseason games so far. Brown has only caught half of his 18 targets and was held under 15 yards in each of the first two postseason games.
Plus, the more versatile Smith will have more opportunities to take advantage of a Kansas City secondary that has struggled somewhat in the playoffs. PFF projects Smith to line up most frequently against slot corner Chamarri Conner, who has allowed a 118.7 passer rating on his five targets so far in the postseason, while Brown is projected to be guarded most frequently by Jaylen Watson, who has been excellent, allowing just a 49.6 passer rating on his five postseason targets. Obviously, the sample size is small, but Conner was also the weak link in the Chiefs’ secondary during the regular season, allowing a 101.8 passer rating, so choosing the wideout who lines up in the slot over the one who doesn’t is sensible.
Furthermore, Kansas City has proven itself to be susceptible to the big play, allowing 52 completions of at least 20 yards, the ninth-most in the NFL. While Smith is more of a possession receiver and Brown is Hurts’ big-play target, Smith averaged better separation than Brown in all three of the Eagles’ playoff games so far. His elite route-running ability and sure hands make him a more valuable and trustworthy asset than Brown and make him more likely to catch a pass in open space, where he should be able to use his above-average agility to rack up yards after the catch.
