The talk is almost over, the Big Game is Sunday as the Chiefs look to make history and earn their third consecutive Super Bowl title, while the Eagles will look to avenge their loss to KC in Super Bowl LVII.
When it comes to how you should look to bet the game, the Underdogs, Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner, have some thoughts.
As they wrote about in The Athletic, Jordan says if you’re betting, and especially if you’re crafting a Same Game Parlay, you should have a theory of the case. Your bets need to tell a story, you’re looking for correlated events. For instance, Jordan says you probably don’t want to hammer three receivers overs for the Eagles because it’s likely they’ll come at the expense of each other. So what he says you want to do is come up with a game script for how you think the game is going to go — are the Chiefs going to win in a blowout, will the Eagles win in a blowout, will it be a close game? Figure that out and then go from there.
For instance, Jordan says if you think the Eagles win by multiple scorers, a couple of things will likely be true. One: The Chiefs aren’t going to be running the ball much. They lack a solid run game to begin with, an if you’re in a trailing game script you’re not going to be running the ball up the middle, you’ll be passing and looking to catch up quickly. So, Jordan says if that’s your theory you likely want an alternate line on the Eagles, Kareem Hunt’s rushing under and to be looking at Samaje Perine’s passing props. By the same token, you would never want to go with these selections if you think the Chiefs are going to win and win big. Jordan says the point is, if you build a storyline in your head and then reverse-engineer things, a lot of bets pop up.
So what was the most notable trend Peter saw in his research? He says something jumped out at him much more than he expected — when the Chiefs win big, they tend to win in defensive clampdowns. Peter points out the Chiefs won five games by more than two scores and didn’t break 30 points in any of them. Patrick Mahomes averaged about 248 yards in those games, which was exactly equal to his seasonal average. He says what the Chiefs did in those games was stop their opponents from scoring in the first half, not giving up more than 18 points in any of those games, and getting a huge amount of pressure on the opposing quarterback, outsacking their opponents 18-8 in those games. Peter points out that George Karlaftis ran wild in those contests, racking up seven sacks, and you can look at his prop to get a sack or more, currently at +107 on DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday afternoon. Basically, he says, the Chiefs got their opponents in a hole, did not let them get easy first downs and led at halftime in all of those games. If the Eagles don’t pick up some first downs early and the Chiefs grind their way to a bigger and bigger lead, it’s a good bet to bet the Chiefs to be ahead at the end of the first half as well as at the end of the game. He also points out that in those blowouts they kept targeting Travis Kelce and there’s a particular scenario where Kelce could keep moving the chains as the Eagles try to limit explosive plays. So he thinks you might want to look at Kelce’s reception over/under in this scenario.
On the Eagles side, Jordan says A.J. Brown is a far better bet if you’re banking on an Eagles blowout win. In games where they’ve won by more than one score, Jordan points out that Brown has cleared 84 yards in six of those eight games. So, if you think the Eagles are going to win in a rout, there is value in his receiving yards total prop. By contrast in close games, Jordan points out that the Eagles run the ball more than anyone and in close games they’re up to about a 59 percent rush rate. Jordan notes that Jalen Hurts is barely cracking 200 yards passing in those types of games, thus Brown’s numbers suffer in those contests — he only surpassed 69.5 receiving yards in two of seven games decided by eight points or fewer, making his under very viable. Meanwhile, despite Dallas Goedert being a popular pick with casuals driving his price up, Jordan thinks you can still justify taking his over, especially considering the Chiefs have given up more yards to tight ends than any other team in the NFL.
Jordan also wants to take a moment to marvel at just how high Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop is going into this game. As of Friday afternoon, he sits at 111.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but Jordan says it feels warranted based on what he’s been doing. The Chiefs may not have given up 100 yards rushing to an individual in a while, but Peter points out that they have been giving up total rushing yards to several teams, including some teams they’ve beaten by more than 10 points. Now, Peter says if you’re a bitter Giants fan looking for an under to chase on Barkley, the receptions total might be the only one that makes sense. His receiving game is just not there with the Eagles like it was during his early career with the Giants. Jordan says that the one scenario where he would fade Barkley’s rushing prop is a scenario where you see the Chiefs winning in a blowout, for the obvious reason that the game script would dictate fewer runs. But in Eagles games where they’ve won by multiple scores, Jordan points out that he’s cleared that prop five of eight times and in close wins, it’s even better, with Barkley topping the prop in six of eight contests. With, as Peter points out, a couple of 200-yard games thrown in there. And in close games, Barkley has had 2+ touchdowns in four of those eight games, which is something else to consider when building your betting slip.
Watch or listen to the whole show below and make sure to keep an eye on the Underdogs podcast feeds on Apple and Spotify as well as the new Underdogs YouTube page for future episodes!
Watch or listen the full episode below!
AUDIO:
How to Bet Super Bowl LIX – From Saquon Rushing Yards to the National Anthem
Can the Chiefs shut down Jalen Hurts? Should you take the under on Jon Batiste’s national anthem? Jordan and Peter have all the Super Bowl LIX game analysis and prop bets to help you cash in on the big game.
VIDEO:
Be sure to check out more episodes of Underdogs on the Underdogs YouTube page and subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts! You can also follow Peter on X at @PeterKeatingNJ and Jordan at @JordanBrenner.
