With the NFL on hiatus for one more week prior to Super Bowl LIX next weekend in New Orleans, football fans’ attention turns to Florida for the Pro Bowl Games. Instead of playing a traditional tackle football game — which was discontinued in 2023 given injury concerns and a lack of player effort — the AFC’s and NFC’s brightest will instead take part in a flag football game, as well as eight different skills competitions, both football-related and not.
As has become typical, there are several noteworthy absences from the league’s All-Star showcase. Five Kansas City Chiefs players and six Philadelphia Eagles players are preparing for the Super Bowl, while MVP candidates Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen unsurprisingly chose to drop out of the competition. The choices to replace them — the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Russell Wilson, who finished 26th in QBR during the regular season, and New England Patriots rookie Drake Maye (18th) — were dubious. Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels also opted not to play, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield — who was better than Daniels by several metrics — replaced him.
The Pro Bowl Games’ marquee event is the seven-on-seven flag football game that will take place on Sunday night. The game will be played on a 50-yard field, with one first down at midfield, and will consist of four 12-minute quarters with no clock stoppage for out-of-bounds. The coaches for the Pro Bowl Games also have never coached in the NFL before, but they should be intimately familiar with each other’s playbooks: brothers Peyton and Eli Manning.
I’m not sure how to go about predicting this, but here we go:
NFC 40, AFC 30
Each team is -110 on the Moneyline to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, so the teams are pretty evenly matched, which makes sense given the depth of talent in each conference.
The AFC probably has the advantage at wide receiver, since I’d slightly favor Ja’Marr Chase and Brian Thomas Jr. over Justin Jefferson and Mike Evans, the NFC’s top two. The AFC’s best running back, Derrick Henry, chose to sit the competition out, so I’d take the NFC’s running back room, led by Detroit Lions leading man Jahmyr Gibbs. Among tight ends, the NFC’s duo of George Kittle and Trey McBride edges out the AFC pairing of Brock Bowers and Jonnu Smith.
Defensively, I’d probably give a slight edge to the AFC, even though Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney had the most interceptions of any player in the competition. Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Kyle Hamilton form an extremely athletic and talented safety corps, and that’s not to mention cornerback Pat Surtain II, who was recently named a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year, and Derek Stingley Jr., whose Houston Texans held opposing quarterbacks to just a 58.8% completion percentage in the regular season. Meanwhile, Chicago’s Jaylon Johnson and Carolina’s Jaycee Horn are decent cornerbacks, but not the best the NFC has to offer.
Ultimately, flag football in the Pro Bowl is about the passing, given that teams are barred from running the ball within the opponent’s five-yard line, and the trio of Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, and Mayfield is simply better than the trio of Joe Burrow, Wilson, and Maye. Teams also have to be aggressive — they have just four downs to go 20 yards when they initially get the ball and four downs to go 25 yards — and Maye, Wilson, and Burrow all ranked 18th or lower in intended air yards per passing attempt. Goff and Mayfield were conservative, too, but Darnold was the 11th-most aggressive passer in the league this season.
Plus, chemistry is important. Mayfield will be throwing to his top receiver, Evans, Darnold will have Jefferson, and Goff will be able to check it down to Gibbs. Meanwhile, Maye is the Patriots’ only Pro Bowler, and no Steelers receivers made it, although Burrow will be able to throw it to Chase.
In terms of effort, Burrow and Wilson, who have each made three or more Pro Bowls, have nothing to prove and have no incentive to try. Goff might not, either, especially on the heels of a disappointing postseason defeat, but Darnold is making his Pro Bowl debut and isn’t under contract for next season. Also, while Mayfield has made a Pro Bowl before and might not have a reason to care, he has been lauded throughout his career for his intensity and penchant for entertainment. He won the Pro Bowl’s Offensive MVP award in 2024.
