Knicks vs. Nets. Manhattan vs. Brooklyn. Glitz vs. grit.
It’s Rivals Week in the NBA, which means all the nationally televised games are rivalry games in one way or another. For the Subway Series, the connection is pretty obvious, although there’s not much of a battle for the soul of New York City.
In 2024-25, the Big Apple’s two teams are going opposite directions. The 28-16 Knicks added Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby in the offseason and have a 2.5-game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks for the third seed in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the 14-29 Nets sold Bridges and are seeking to Capture the Flagg.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is an 11.5-point favorite (-625 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 219.5. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is +455 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
As one of the league’s most popular teams, it’s not remotely surprising that the Knicks attracted a vast majority of the bets, slightly greater than their implied 83% winning percentage. Although New York has had a few surprising losses in recent weeks — it’s just 4-6 in its last 10 games, losing twice to the Oklahoma City Thunder and once each to the Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, and Minnesota Timberwolves — it is still an inner-circle championship contender. Meanwhile, the Nets — who attracted a few big-money bettors hoping to capitalize on the Knicks’ inconsistency — have lost eight of their last 10 games, including a 59-point loss to the LA Clippers on January 15.
The public is moderately confident that New York will cover the 11.5-point spread, as 69% of bets and 75% of the handle came in on a comfortable Knicks victory. Both teams have demonstrated remarkably similar performance against the spread. New York has a 22-21-1 record against the spread, while Brooklyn is 22-20-1. The Knicks have covered the spread 52.6% of the time as favorites, while the Nets have covered it 53.9% of the time as underdogs, although New York has been favored in all but five games and Brooklyn has been the underdog in all but five.
There is a huge disparity in the betting splits when it comes to the total. While a majority (69%) of the public is expecting a high-scoring game, a majority (66%) of the handle is on the game to go under 219.5 points, indicating that big-money bettors are skeptical of both teams’ offenses, especially with several of Brooklyn’s best players sidelined. Three of the Knicks’ most recent five games went over the total, although the most recent two went under, and three of the Nets’ last five games, including their most recent one, went over the total as well. Overall, the over is 24-19-1 in New York’s games and 22-21 in Brooklyn’s.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Wednesday’s game:
- Jalen Brunson 25+ Points (-135)
- Mikal Bridges 20+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-285)
- Josh Hart Triple-Double (+1000)
- Karl-Anthony Towns 5+ Three-Pointers Made (+1200)
- Karl-Anthony Towns 12+ Rebounds (-175)
All five of the most popular player prop bets are on the Knicks, which makes sense given the injury questions on the Nets’ roster. The public is backing a combination of fairly likely props and extreme long shots.
Bettors’ most-backed player is New York’s captain, Jalen Brunson, who has dropped 25 or more points in each of his last six games. The diminutive southpaw has been carrying the Knicks through a recent rough patch, averaging 33.3 points per game on 55-43-83 shooting splits across that stretch despite New York dropping three of the six games. The public is also backing the former Brooklyn star, Bridges, to put up 20 combined points, rebounds, and assists, which he has done in 33 of his 44 games, including in each of the past four. Furthermore, bettors are confident that Towns, who is second in the league in rebounds, to snag at least 12 boards, which he has done in eight of his last 10 games.
Among longer shots, the public believes that Hart — who’s third in the league in minutes per game and 19th in rebounds, by far the best among all guards — can record a triple-double for the sixth time this season. He has snagged double-digit rebounds in 12 of his last 15 games, including four triple-doubles across that span. This season, the Nets have allowed the 12th-most points, fourth-fewest rebounds, and ninth-most assists to opposing players. Bettors also back Towns, arguably the greatest-shooting big man of all time, to drain five three-pointers for the third time this season. Brooklyn allows the 13th-most made threes per game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
