Of the NFL’s four Divisional Round games, probably the most exciting is the battle between the two favorites for MVP: Lamar Jackson and the 13-5 Baltimore Ravens against Josh Allen and the 14-4 Buffalo Bills. Both teams handily won their Wild Card Round games — Baltimore beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, 28-14, and the Bills topped the Denver Broncos, 31-7. The league clearly agrees, as it’s scheduled the game for the marquee 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday slot.
A win would send the Ravens to the AFC Championship for the second year in a row, as they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, 17-10, as the top seed in last year’s playoffs. Meanwhile, Buffalo would make its first AFC Championship appearance since the 2020-21 season, when it lost to the Chiefs, 38-24. The winner would likely have to go through Kansas City, an 8.5-point favorite over the Houston Texans, once again to reach the Super Bowl.
Here are the betting splits and most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for the highly-anticipated matchup.
Baltimore is a 1.5-point favorite (-118 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 51.5. Meanwhile, the Bills are -102 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
All one has to do to understand how competitive this game is going to be is to look at how evenly split all of the betting lines are.
The Ravens have attracted a slightly larger share of the bets on the Moneyline, garnering 51% of the action, slightly lower than their implied 52% chance of victory. Baltimore bettors might be sold on the fact that the team blew out Buffalo, 35-10, in Week 4, but both teams look significantly different now. Buffalo has won 11 of its last 12 games in which Allen played more than one snap, and the Ravens are riding a five-game win streak of their own, all by significant margins. In particular, Baltimore’s defense, which had struggled for much of the season, has allowed just 11.4 points per game across that win streak.
The Bills have commanded a small minority (54%) of bets to cover the 1.5-point spread, but the Ravens attracted more of the handle (53%), indicating big-money bettors’ confidence in Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. This season, Baltimore was 11-6-1 against the spread, while Buffalo was 11-7. The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last five games, while the Bills have covered it three times in their last five games.
A small majority of the public is betting on the game to be high-scoring, with 55% of the handle and 55% of all bets being placed on the game to go over 51.5 points. During the regular season, Buffalo had the second-highest scoring offense (30.9 points per game), and Baltimore was just one slot behind (30.5 points per game). On defense, both teams were pretty average; the Bills allowed the 11th-fewest points per game (21.6), while the Ravens (21.2) were two slots better. The over is 13-5 in Baltimore’s games and 11-7 in Buffalo’s, hitting in three of each team’s five previous games.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Sunday’s game:
- Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer (-220)
- Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (+110)
- James Cook Anytime TD Scorer (+105)
- Derrick Henry First TD Scorer (+425)
- Rashod Bateman Anytime TD Scorer (+155)
All five of the most popular bets are touchdown scorer props, which makes sense given how high-powered both offenses are. Bettors are slightly more confident in the Ravens, as they have four of the six most popular prop bets.
Unsurprisingly, the public is extremely confident that Henry will find the end zone, which he has done in 14 of his 18 games this season. He scored in each of the first 11 games of the season before a surprising four-game scoring drought from Weeks 12 through 16. However, he has scored five touchdowns in his last three games while racking up 471 yards on just 73 carries, so needless to say, he’s in fine form. For all of their strengths, the Bills haven’t been incredible against opposing running backs, allowing 2,379 total yards and 16 total touchdowns, although 750 of those yards have come through the air, where Henry is a relative non-factor.
Bettors are also backing Henry to score the game’s first touchdown, which he did seven times this season, including against Buffalo in Week 4. Henry has been great in every game situation, but he’s been arguably his most productive in the opening 15 minutes, taking 79 carries for 407 yards and six scores.
The public is also high on Bills players to find the end zone, including Allen, who was second in the league among quarterbacks with 12 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. Allen found the end zone in eight of his 16 regular-season games, including six of his last seven, although he did not score during Buffalo’s Wild Card Round win. Bettors also back Cook, whose 18 total touchdowns tied Henry for the second-most in the regular season, to find the end zone, as he has done in 13 of his 17 combined appearances between the regular season and playoffs. However, it’ll be a tough task against a Baltimore defense that has allowed just 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for the seventh-fewest in football.
Finally, bettors appear to be taking Zay Flowers’ injury into account. The first-time Pro Bowl selection went down with a knee injury during the Ravens’ regular-season finale, missing Baltimore’s Wild Card Round game, and he seems unlikely to play against the Bills. With Flowers sidelined, Bateman scored a touchdown in both the Week 18 win and the Wild Card win. The fourth-year pro ranks second on the Ravens in overall target share (15.1%), fifth within the red zone (12.1%), and fourth on throws into the end zone (9.8%).
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
