After a one-year absence from the postseason, the Los Angeles Chargers are back, this time with a little help from the Baltimore Ravens, who opted not to re-sign running back J.K. Dobbins after the 2023 season.
It obviously worked out for the Ravens — who replaced Dobbins with Derrick Henry and subsequently went 12-5 — but it worked out for the Chargers as well. Dobbins took 195 carries for 905 yards and nine touchdowns and added 32 catches for 153 yards. He has put up all of this production despite missing four games with a knee sprain.
Los Angeles — which signed veteran Ezekiel Elliott for running back depth on Tuesday with Dobbins officially questionable with an ankle injury — will open its 2024-25 playoff campaign with a road game against the Houston Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chargers are three-point favorites, and the point total is set at 41.5. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bets centered around Dobbins.
Best J.K. Dobbins Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
J.K. Dobbins First to 20 Rushing Yards (+150)
Especially in recent weeks, Los Angeles has been a quick-starting offense. Throughout the season, the Chargers have possessed the ball 54.2% of the time in the first quarter, a figure that has risen to 58.7% in the last three weeks. Los Angeles also has the league’s tenth-highest first-quarter scoring offense, averaging 5.1 points per game during the opening frame. If the Chargers start with the ball, that might benefit Dobbins, who has taken seven more carries in the first half than in the second half this season.
He’ll almost definitely be the first Los Angeles player to reach 20 yards, given that he has more than twice as many first-quarter rushing yards and nearly twice as many carries as his teammate Gus Edwards. I’m also pessimistic about Texans running back Joe Mixon in general, given that the Chargers have one of the best rushing defenses in the league and the fact that Mixon has averaged just 3.23 yards per carry over his last four games.
Houston’s rushing defense is relatively solid; the Texans have allowed just 1,466 yards to opposing running backs this season, the 11th-fewest in the league. Still, they allowed 124 rushing yards to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16 and 251 rushing yards to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17, so they’ve shown some vulnerabilities on the ground in recent weeks.
J.K. Dobbins U11.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Although 2024-25 has been the best receiving year of Dobbins’ career, he’s still not much of a pass-catcher. He’s also been used sparingly as a receiver in recent weeks, recording only 19 total receiving yards in his two appearances since returning from his knee injury. The return of Gus Edwards, who missed each of Los Angeles’ last two games with an injury, will hurt his touches in general, so it’s unlikely that he’ll have enough opportunities to make an impact in the passing game.
Plus, Houston has excelled at limiting damage through the air from opposing running backs. This season, the Texans have only given up 476 receiving yards to running backs, the eighth-fewest in the league and fifth-lowest among playoff teams. Herbert isn’t going to want to check it down against a Houston secondary that has been pretty vulnerable to explosive plays, so I think Dobbins’ impact will be limited to the ground.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
