Week 18 features an AFC North doubleheader. In the first game, the Ravens will look to clinch the AFC North with a win over the Browns. If the Ravens lose, the Steelers will have a chance to steal the AFC North with a win over the Bengals, as Cincinnati fights for its own playoff life.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just via traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Saturday Pick6 Plays
These are some pivotal games with stakes for almost every team involved in the three games. The Chargers can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Patriots. The Broncos can also clinch a playoff spot with a win. Meanwhile, the Bengals can keep their playoff hopes alive if they knock off Denver. The Rams need a win to maintain their lead in the NFC West divisional race and the Cardinals will be looking to play spoiler against their division rivals.
Here are my top Pick6 plays for the Saturday NFL slate.
Andrei Iosivas More Than 2.5 Receptions
Andrei Iosivas has been a breakout contributor for the Bengals this season. With the departure of Tyler Boyd in the offseason, the WR3 role behind Chase and Higgins was left open and Iosivas jumped on the chance. He has six receiving touchdowns this season, the third-most on the team, and nearly 500 receiving yards. Chase Browns and Tee Higgins are both questionable for this game. Both of those players have more receptions on the season than Iosivas so if either one of them misses this game, that should lead to more targets for Iosivas. Even with a fully healthy offense, Iosisvas has cleared this number each of the past two weeks and in five of his past six games. The Steelers rank 21st in defensive passing success rate this season, meaning they are allowing short completions that allow opponents to stay ahead of the sticks. That means Iosivas should make this three straight games with three catches or more.
Justin Tucker Less Than 8.5 Kicking Points
The Ravens should be able to score at will in this game. They are currently 20-point favorites over the Browns, the biggest spread of any NFL game this season. It might seem counterintuitive to bet less than 8.5 kicking points for Tucker when his team is expected to dominate, however, I don’t anticipate the Browns holding the Ravens to field goals. This season, the Browns rank 22nd in red zone touchdown scoring percentage. Last week, they allowed the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins to score touchdowns on both of their red zone trips. The Ravens have the second-best offense in the NFL, measured by EPA/play, and they should easily find the end zone against Cleveland. This number allows Tucker to make one field goal and still have a huge cushion of six extra points that would be required to push him over this number. It is also expected to be cold and windy in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon so that could discourage the Ravens from attempting longer kicks, especially with the struggles Tucker had had from distance this season.
Joe Burrow Less Than 0.5 Interceptions Thrown
Joe Burrow, based on the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, is a tier below Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in the MVP race, but he has MVP-level numbers this season. This game means everything to the Bengals, just like it has the past few weeks. The Bengals have won four straight games heading into this one to keep their season alive. With a win over the Steelers and some help on Sunday, they can still get into the playoffs. Burrow and the Bengals should play the game of their lives to put the pressure on the Dolphins and Broncos on Sunday. Burrow has stayed interception-free in his past two games, including last week against Denver, the best pass defense in the league. Overall, Burrow has only thrown an interception in 7/16 (43.8%) of games this season. Burrow has risen to the occasion each of the past two weeks and throughout his career. He should keep a clean stat line against the Steelers in this game to keep his playoff chances alive.
Pat Freiermuth More Than 3.5 Receptions
This is the perfect spot for Pat Freiermuth to have a big game. Freiermuth had a great game last week against the Chiefs with a season-high seven catches for 60 yards. Freiermuth had his season-high in receiving yards in the first matchup against the Bengals, going for 68 yards on six catches and adding a touchdown. So, Freiermuth is in great form and has proven that this is a great matchup for him already this season. Last season, Freiermuth had nine catches for 120 yards against Cincinnati so he loves playing against the Bengals. The Cincinnati defense ranks 21st in EPA/dropback and 22nd in dropback success rate. Their secondary has been vulnerable all season, including that first matchup against the Steelers. George Pickens returned to the field for the Steelers last week and that could have attributed to the big day for Freiermuth. The respect defenses have to give to Pickens going deep, opens up the middle of the field for possession receivers like Freiermuth to pick up catches. Freiermuth should clear this number on Saturday night against a bad Bengals secondary.
Ja’Marr Chase More Than 93.5 Receiving Yards
Ja’Marr Chase has had a historic season for the Bengals. He currently leads the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. If he completes the receiving triple crown, he will become just the fifth player of the modern era to do so. The Steelers rank 21st in defensive dropback success rate. The Steelers also rank 19th in the league in 20+ yard catches allowed and 26th in 40+ yard catches allowed this season. That means that they are allowing short chunk passes but have also given up a lot of explosive passes. That is a really bad combination when facing Ja’Marr Chase. Chase can make things incredibly difficult for Pittsburgh as he had done to every team by making them decide whether they want to try to limit the deep ball or press on Chase.
This number is very high but Chase has actually cleared this number four games in a row. With his triple crown and the Bengals’ playoff chances on the line, Chase should have another monster game. There is a chance that Tee Higgins and Chase Brown miss this game as both are listed as questionable. If either one of those players misses out, that should mean even more targets for Chase, who is already second in the NFL in targets this season.
Rashod Bateman Less Than 34.5 Receiving Yards
Rashod Bateman has been phased out of the Baltimore offense over the past few weeks. This game is likely to be a blowout, with the Ravens as historic 19.5-point favorites over the Browns. Last week against Houston, the Ravens dominated that game as well and went with a run-heavy approach. The Ravens ran the ball 43 times, compared to just 17 passing attempts last week against the Texans. Not a single player on the team had more than two receptions in that game. The week before against Pittsburgh was a similar story. The Ravens won handily and Zay Flowers had 100 receiving yards but nobody else on the team had more than 37 receiving yards.
Lamar Jackson loves to spread the ball out to a bunch of different players, including multiple running backs and two tight ends. Zay Flowers is comfortably the #1 receiver in the offense as well. That leaves really limited action for Bateman. Bateman is averaging just 1.5 receptions per game over his past six games. He has only cleared this number in three of his past nine games. With what should be a run-heavy approach and a blowout game script, there should be minimal targets to Bateman in this game, keeping him under this number.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of two or more players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing two or more players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.Must be at least 18 years or older. Higher age limits may apply in some states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid only in states where DraftKings Pick6 operates. Void where prohibited. For entertainment purposes only. Winning a contest on DraftKings depends on knowledge and exercise of skill. See terms at pick6.draftkings.com.
