Next week, the Detroit Lions will have, in essence, an early playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings, where the winner will claim the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the conference and the loser will start its playoff campaign on the road in Tampa, Los Angeles, or Atlanta. But first, a Monday Night Football clash with the already-eliminated San Francisco 49ers stands in the way.
After narrowly losing to San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game in January, the Lions have had a tremendous season, going 14-2 with only narrow losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2 and the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. Detroit is currently a +170 favorite to win the NFC on Draftkings Sportsbook.
The Lions have been bolstered by strong form from many playmakers, but perhaps the best is last year’s First-Team All-Pro honoree, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The fourth-year receiver from USC has caught 101 passes so far this season for 1,126 yards and 11 touchdowns.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite to beat San Francisco, and the point total is set at 50.5. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bet centered around St. Brown.
Best Amon-Ra St. Brown Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Amon-Ra St. Brown U72.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While both teams have been badly bitten by the injury bug this season, most of San Francisco’s injuries have been on the offensive side of the ball, so its defense is relatively healthy and strong. The only notable absence in the 49ers secondary is former Pro Bowl cornerback Charvarius Ward — who is out for personal reasons — although Ward has been one of the worst regular starters in the league this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
With rookie cornerback Renardo Green having a good season and former All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga back healthy after missing seven games with a wrist injury, San Francisco has been unkind to opposing receivers. The 49ers have allowed the fewest receptions (287), fewest receiving yards (2,931), third-fewest yards per reception (10.2), and fifth-fewest touchdowns (18) to opposing receivers. They’ve also been rarely beaten for explosive plays, giving up just 31 20-plus-yard receptions, the fewest of any team.
St. Brown is a great receiver, but he splits targets with a deep and talented Lions receiving corps that includes former 12th overall pick Jameson Williams, who has accounted for nearly 900 yards through the air as well. While his counting stats are impressive, St. Brown is buoyed by four 100-yard performances, including a 14-catch, 193-yard outburst against the Bills in the Week 15 shootout loss. Despite ranking 10th in the NFL with a 27.5% target share, St. Brown has reached 73 receiving yards just six times in his 15 games.
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