As the football world pauses for the Christmas holiday, all attention focuses on Matchweek 18 in the Premier League, which will kick off on Boxing Day with an eight-game slate. At Christmas, Liverpool sits on top of the table with Chelsea, four points behind, in hot pursuit.
For Premier League fans, there are plenty of bets available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my top betting picks for the festive Premier League Matchweek 18 slate.
First, let’s take a look at the full schedule for Matchweek 18:
Everton at Manchester City, 7:30 a.m. EST, December 26
Crystal Palace at AFC Bournemouth, 10 a.m. EST, December 26
Fulham at Chelsea, 10 a.m. EST, December 26
Aston Villa at Newcastle United, 10 a.m. EST, December 26
Tottenham Hotspur at Nottingham Forest, 10 a.m. EST, December 26
West Ham United at Southampton, 10 a.m. EST, December 26
Manchester United at Wolves, 12:30 p.m. EST, December 26
Leicester City at Liverpool, 3 p.m. EST, December 26
Brentford at Brighton & Hove Albion, 2:30 p.m. EST, December 27
Ipswich Town at Arsenal, 3:15 p.m. EST, December 27
Gabriel Martinelli Anytime Scorer (+130)
Arsenal is once again in the thick of the title fight on Christmas. This time last year, they topped the table with 40 points, and this season, they’ve accumulated 33, trailing Liverpool by six points. They were dominant in Matchweek 17, picking up a 5-1 win over London rivals Crystal Palace.
Unfortunately for the Gunners, star winger Bukayo Saka — who ranks third in the league with 15 goal contributions — will miss the next several weeks with a hamstring injury. In his absence, Arsenal’s path to its first Premier League title since 2002-03 gets a lot tougher.
With Saka out, all of the Gunners’ role players must step up and perform in order to keep the team afloat. One player who particularly stands to benefit is Gabriel Martinelli, who, like Saka, operates primarily on the right wing. The Brazilian scored the fourth goal in Arsenal’s demolition of Crystal Palace and produced 1.2 expected goal contributions during the match.
The Gunners should get plenty of opportunities to get their attack clicking in a match against lowly Ipswich Town. The Tractor Boys have allowed opponents to stack up good chances, totaling 35.0 expected goals against, more than any team but relegation-bound Southampton. Ipswich’s defense is also in poor form, having suffered a 4-0 demolition at the hands of Newcastle United last weekend. While the Tractor Boys have been a good addition to the Premier League and have rarely been routed, expecting their leaky defense to hold off Arsenal’s strong attack may be a step too far.
Everton Moneyline (+700)
At some point, Manchester City has to turn it around…right?
Since November 1, the four-time defending champions have been in the worst form in the league, picking up four points, one fewer than even Southampton. City has lost nine of its last 12 games across all contributions, players’ frustration is high, and opponents simply don’t look intimidated by them anymore. Frankly, it wasn’t a surprise to anyone that Aston Villa claimed a 2-1 victory last weekend. Manchester City were on the back foot from the very first kick of the game.
Meanwhile, especially given the opposition that they faced, Everton have looked much better in the last few matchweeks. They haven’t scored in the last two weeks, but the Toffees’ defense is extremely strong, holding both Arsenal and Chelsea to 0-0 draws in successive weeks. Before that, their most recent game was a Matchweek 14 drubbing of Wolves. That’s three straight matches in which Jordan Pickford hasn’t conceded a goal.
Since a nightmare start to the season that made Everton look like relegation fodder, the Toffees have been pretty good. They’ve only picked up two losses in the Premier League in their last 13 matches, and they actually outplayed Southampton in that Matchweek 10 game. If they can pick up two points from an away match at Arsenal and a home date against Chelsea, there’s no way they won’t pick up at least one against badly slumping City.
Bournemouth to Win and O1.5 Goals (+130)
There have been a lot of storylines in the Premier League so far this season. Liverpool’s dominance. Manchester City’s downfall. Chelsea finally putting it all together. Nottingham Forest’s incredible rise from a relegation battle last season to a title fight this season. But nobody seems to be talking at Bournemouth, who, despite losing top scorer Dominic Solanke to Tottenham in the offseason, are somehow fifth in the table. I, for one, haven’t written about the Cherries yet.
Well, Brighton are no longer the Cinderellas on the South Coast, because Bournemouth has become impossible to ignore. The Cherries first announced their presence as a major factor in the Premier League this season on November 2, when they pulled off a shocking 2-1 upset over Manchester City at the start of the latter’s downfall. Since then, they’ve beaten up on some pretty mediocre teams, but a 3-0 drubbing of the red side of Manchester last Sunday was certainly a statement, even though the Red Devils haven’t been great this season.
Bournemouth has been incredible at creating chances this season, even if they have missed Solanke’s tactical finishing. Although their 27 goals scored is only tied for seventh-most in the Premier League this year, their chances have been worth 34.0 expected goals this season, worse than only Liverpool and Chelsea. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace took a 5-1 drubbing at the hands of Arsenal in its last game and has a below-average defense overall, both by expected goals and actual goals conceded.
Mohamed Salah 3+ Shots on Target (+150)
Liverpool are coming off arguably the game of the year on Sunday, an unbelievable 6-3 thriller against Tottenham, who have no trouble finding the back of the net but do struggle keeping the ball out of their own. Such an offensive outburst wouldn’t have been possible without a dominant performance from Mohamed Salah, who contributed two goals and two assists. The 32-year-old Egyptian is making a strong early-season push to become the second-ever African player to win a Ballon d’Or.
Salah should find it easy against Leicester City on Thursday. The Foxes swept to the Championship title easily last season, but their first season back in the top flight hasn’t been easy, and they took an embarrassing 3-0 loss to Wolverhampton Wanderers in a relegation six-pointer. With a win, Leicester could have gone up to 15th in the table, five points clear of Ipswich Town, but Wolves closed the gap to two. The Foxes rank second-to-last in the Premier League with 37 goals conceded and third-to-last with 34.6 expected goals allowed.
Salah is one of the most lethal finishers in football history, and he’s having the best season of his career, leading the Premier League in both goals (15) and assists (11). He’s also averaging a career high in terms of the percentage of shots that he gets on target (48.1%). Although he’s averaging only 1.67 shots on target per game, he’s put at least three on target in four Premier League games already this season. Leicester City has conceded 6.00 shots on target per game, more than all but Brentford and Southampton.
Aston Villa Moneyline (+250)
I’m not incredibly sold by Newcastle’s recent form, even though they’re coming off consecutive 4-0 drubbings in the Premier League sandwiched around a 3-1 win over Brentford in the Carabao Cup quarterfinals. Those wins came against relegation contenders Leicester City and Ipswich Town, and I’ve already written in this column about how much the Foxes and Tractor Boys have struggled in recent weeks. Newcastle has had some fine results this season — beating Tottenham and Arsenal and holding Liverpool and Manchester City to draws — but should Aston Villa really have such long odds on the moneyline?
Aston Villa haven’t been brilliant in every game — a 4-1 defeat to Tottenham and a 2-2 draw to Ipswich Town among the most confounding results — but they are still fifth in the Champions League table in their first appearance in the tournament, and they are coming off a victory against Manchester City. Maybe City aren’t very good, but Villa have picked up four wins from their last five games in all competitions, and they outplayed both Crystal Palace and Juventus in recent draws.
Aston Villa is a slightly better team than Newcastle, both by expected goal difference and by both teams’ position in the table. St. James’ Park doesn’t seem to be a massive boost for the Magpies, either; they’ve picked up four wins, two draws, and two losses at home, only the tenth-best home form in the league. Fundamentally, this game is a tossup, which means Aston Villa at plus money is excellent value.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
