The Baltimore Ravens will take on the Houston Texans on Christmas Day, and the biggest running back in the league is ready to feast.
Coming off an elating win against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Saturday, which kept them alive for the AFC North title, the Ravens will surely come to Texas flying high. Although quarterback Lamar Jackson is likely to finish second in the MVP race, Baltimore has been spectacular ever since an 0-2 start to the season and will be a major threat in the playoffs.
In addition to Jackson, the biggest key to Baltimore’s success is six-foot-two, 247-pound running back Derrick Henry, the NFL’s active leader in career rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and total touchdowns. This season, Henry has had arguably the best season of his likely Hall of Fame career, racking up 278 carries, 1,636 yards, and 13 scores. He was brilliant against Pittsburgh, taking his 24 carries for 162 yards and adding another two catches and 27 yards through the air.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens are 5.5-point favorites, and the point total is set at 46.5. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bets centered around King Henry.
Best Derrick Henry Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Derrick Henry 110+ Rushing Yards (+150)
There is enough parity in the NFL that few things are consistent. However, Derrick Henry might be the closest thing there is to a sure thing.
Since Baltimore’s opening day loss to the Kansas City Chiefs — Henry’s debut in a Ravens uniform — he has not posted fewer than 65 rushing yards in any game, including a 199-yard performance in a Week 4 blowout against the Buffalo Bills, the third-best single-game output this season. Henry was somewhat of an afterthought in the offseason after the Tennessee Titans opted to replace him with Tony Pollard, but he has quickly reminded people of his greatness since arriving in Baltimore.
The Texans have a pretty good rushing defense, allowing just 1,602 rushing yards this season, fewer than all but 10 teams. Opposing ball carriers are earning just 4.3 yards per carry against Houston, the 11th-lowest rate in the league, and have scored just nine touchdowns, tied for the fourth-fewest in football. Still, Henry was as productive as ever against the Steelers, who have a better defense by several metrics.
Derrick Henry 2+ Touchdowns (+300)
Yes, Henry hasn’t found the end zone in his past four games, his longest scoring drought since 2018. And yes, the Texans rarely cede touchdowns on the ground. Still, I don’t think that should ward people off of betting on a monster performance from Henry.
A lot of Henry’s touchdown drought can be explained simply by luck. Henry still accounts for 64.9% of Baltimore’s rushes inside the 20-yard line, including 93.8% of its attempts within the opponent’s five-yard line. The Ravens lean on Henry inside the 5 more than any other team in the league does on its leading back, and he’s rewarded their faith with 11 scores, so it’s just a matter of getting into that position.
The problem in recent weeks has been that Jackson is too good. All eight of the Ravens’ offensive touchdowns in the last two games were scored from more than five yards away, so Henry hasn’t had many opportunities to punch one in from close range. With such a small sample size, I don’t think it’s reason enough to be skeptical of Henry’s chances of putting up his fourth two-touchdown performance of the season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
