In the final matchup of the Week 16 NFL slate, the Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints.
The Packers enter this matchup with a 10-4 record, which would have them in first place in three divisions in the NFL, but they sit in third place in the NFC North. With the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings each holding a 13-2 record, Green Bay will be fighting for a Wild Card spot. The Packers will officially clinch their playoff opportunity with a victory tonight.
The outlook is not as positive down in New Orleans. The Saints enter the matchup with a 5-9 record and have already been eliminated from playoff contention. After an exciting 2-0 start to the year, the Saints went on to lose seven consecutive games and saw their outlook greatly change. Injuries have continually become a larger issue with Derek Carr, Chris Olave, and Alvin Kamara headlining the list of names to miss tonight’s matchup.
The Packers enter this game as 14-point favorites at -950 on the Moneyline. The Saints are +625 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game total is set at 43 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Monday night clash.
Josh Jacobs Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Packers made an offseason splash by bringing in Josh Jacobs. The Pro Bowl running back has provided a new element to this Packers’ offense and given some nice balance to the attack. On the season overall, he has carried the ball 265 times for 1,147 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. He also has added 31 receptions for 302 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air.
Jacobs is averaging 81.9 rushing yards per game. He has gone over 91.5 rushing yards in five games already this season and should have game script in his favor tonight. New Orleans has several areas of concern, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Overall, they rank 12th in points allowed, 30th in yards given up, 27th in rushing yards allowed, 23rd in rushing touchdowns conceded, and 31st in net yards per rush attempt.
With the Saints’ defense proving to be vulnerable and the offense heavily depleted, this game has a chance to get out of control tonight. Green Bay enters as 14-point favorites and will have the opportunity to build a notable lead rather quickly. This likely will result in additional rushing opportunities for Jacobs as they attempt to soak up the clock. He has seen an average of 18.9 rush attempts per game and is coming off a 94-yard rushing performance last week. Expect him to see some additional opportunities tonight in the second half and have a great chance to reach 100 yards for the fourth time this season.
Kendre Miller Over 69.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-105)
The Saints’ offensive outlook took a massive hit following the injury to Alvin Kamara. The star running back has proven to be the engine of the New Orleans offense and was up to 1,493 yards from scrimmage on the season, which ranks seventh in the NFL. He is set to miss tonight’s game with a groin injury, with his availability in doubt moving forward. Kendre Miller will be the primary candidate to step in and help fill this production.
So far this season, Miller has suited up in just four games for the Saints. The second-year running back has tallied 28 carries for 130 yards and a touchdown thus far. He flashed the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield last season, and this could especially come into play tonight if the Saints fall behind.
The Packers have been solid on both sides of the ball this year. Looking at their defensive metrics, Green Bay ranks eighth in points allowed, ninth in yardage conceded, 16th in passing yards allowed, and 10th in rushing yards given up. Tonight will mark Kendre Miller’s most expansive opportunity in the offense. He logged 47% of offensive snaps last week and finished with nine carries for 46 yards. Expect there to be enough volume for Miller to play a role in this game and record over 69.5 yards from scrimmage. Miller is an elusive runner with breakaway speed and can make a big play happen when given the opportunity. Expect him to make the most of his chances tonight and for him to be motivated to perform as he hopes to carve out a larger role moving forward.
Jordan Love Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Jordan Love is higher on the list of promising young quarterbacks than he sometimes gets credit for. The Utah State product has settled in nicely in his second season as a starter. Love has completed 63.7% of his passes this season and thrown for 2,953 yards and 23 touchdowns across his 12 games played. He is averaging 246.1 passing yards per game and has thrown for over 233.5 passing yards in six of his 12 games played.
New Orleans ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed this season and 28th in passing yards allowed. The biggest threat to Love not reaching this total would be if the game is a blowout. However, expect the young quarterback to leap at the opportunity of carving up an underwhelming defense and do most of his passing damage early.
Green Bay will officially clinch a playoff appearance with a victory tonight, so expect a focused effort to make this happen. Count on Love to air it out early and often as this game kicks off and make his way to over 233.5 passing yards. The Packers’ variety of passing concepts will stress this New Orleans defense, so expect Love to have his choice for who to target. Count on there being a significant offensive output for the franchise quarterback tonight and for Love to at least reach his average of 246.1 passing yards per game.
Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+240)
In his second season in the NFL, Tucker Kraft has taken a significant stride forward in his production. The South Dakota State product has recorded 41 receptions for 555 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. Love has gained more and more trust in Kraft throughout the season, to the point where he leads the team in receiving touchdowns. Despite this, he is fifth on the Packers in odds for an anytime touchdown, trailing Josh Jacobs, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed.
Looking at his output on the season, Kraft has found his way into the end zone in six of the past 11 weeks and seven times overall. The Saints’ defense is a bit all over the place when looking at the metrics. They rank 12th in points allowed, 30th in yards given up, 28th in passing yards allowed, but second in touchdowns conceded. New Orleans has allowed just one touchdown to tight ends this season, although they are allowing an average of 54 receiving yards per game to the position.
The Packers enter this game as 14-point favorites and there should be plenty of opportunity for scoring. Kraft ranks second on the Packers in receptions, third in receiving yards, and leads the team in receiving touchdowns. With the scoring opportunities expected to be plentiful, taking a chance on Kraft at +240 odds is great value. Expect the Packers to continue to grow his role in the offense and be targeted in the red zone tonight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
