While the NBA matchups this weekend have been overshadowed by the College Football Playoff and Week 16 of the NFL, the action on the hardwood continues. Three games are taking place tonight with two tipping off at 6:10 PM EST and one at 7:10 PM EST.
In the first window, the Toronto Raptors will host the Houston Rockets while the Sacramento Kings will host the Indiana Pacers. The 7:10 PM EST matchup will be between the Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans.
You can check out each matchup and all prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my favorite prop bets in each matchup on the Sunday slate.
Jonathan Mogbo Over 6.5 Rebunds (-105)
The Toronto Raptors are still in the midst of a rebuild and establishing which young members will be a part of their long-term plan. Rookie Jonathan Mogbo is making his case and has played some high-level basketball of late. Across the 28 games he has played, Mogbo is averaging 5.6 points and 4.6 rebounds per game in his 17.8 minutes of play. However, Mogbo has seen his level of opportunity expand in recent games, getting the starting opprotunity in the last three games and playing 27.5 minutes or more in each game.
On the season overall, Mogbo has recorded over 6.5 rebounds in just seven games. However, he has reached this number in three of the past five games and six of these games have been in the past moth. Mogbo is averaging 2.1 offensive rebounds per game at home this season which puts him in the 90th percentile in the NBA.
Looking at this matchup, expect an uptick in offensive possessions. Toronto has played at the third-fastest pace over the past 15 games at home while the Rockets rank sixth in pace across the past 20 games. While the Rockets lead the league in total rebounding, they rank 24th in opponents rebounds per game. Mogbo has seen an expanded opportunity of late and his 6-foot-9 frame and plus athleticism will be necessary to counter this Rockets team. Expect him to make an impact on the boards and record over 6.5 reounds tonight.
Kevin Huerter Over 8.5 Points (+105)
It has not been a great start to the season for Kevin Huerter. The seven-year NBA veteran has struggled shooting the ball this season and is connecting on just 30.8% of his three-point attempts thus far which is a career-low rate. Throughout his career he has shot 37.7% from beyond the arc and connected on 40.2% of his long-range attempts over the course of a season just two years ago.
Finally, the tides seem to be turning with Huerter connecting at a 15% better rate from the floor over the past five games. Huerter has shot 14-32 (43.8%) on his three-point attempts across this stretch. This includes logging a season-high 26 points during this period. Even amid the shooting struggles, Huerter is averaging 9.8 points per game and has recorded over 8.5 points in 14 of the 25 games he has played.
Expect there to be plenty of offensive opportunities for Huerter in this matchup with both teams playing an up-tempo style of basketball. The Indiana Pacers rank third in pace over the past 15 games while the Kings rank eighth in this category over the past five home games. Huerter has still been able to shoot himself past this number most games already this season and should have a much easier time with his shooting splits returning to normal. Expect him to see his usual level of opportunity in this up-tempo matchup and for Huerter to record over 8.5 points for the 15th time this season.
Yves Missi Over 19.5 Points & Rebounds (-115)
It has been a disastrous season for the New Orleans Pelicans but rookie Yves Missi has been a bright spot for the organization. The Baylor product has been thrown into a much larger role than expected this season due to the significant injuries the team has faced. Missi has started 22 of the 28 games he has played and is averaging 9.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game across his 26.1 minutes per game.
His level of opportunity has further expanded in recent games with him playing 32.0 minutes per game over the past five games. Missi is averaging 10.8 points and 11.2 rebounds across this time. This also is expected to be an up-tempo matchup with the Pelicans playing at the 9th-fastest pace over the past 15 games while the Nuggers are second in the NBA in pace across the past five games. While this can sometimes limit the amount of impact from big men, Missi is athletic enough to get out on the break and plays with an incredibly high motor.
Overall this season, Miss has recorded over 19.5 combined points and rebounds in ten of the 29 games including three of the past five games. Injuries continue to be the biggest issue for New Orelans and Missi will continue to see plenty of minutes while the injury report remains packed. Expect his activity and athleticism to cause some issues against Nikola Jokic tonight and for Missi to lead the way rebounding for the Pelicans. Count on him recording over 19.5 combined points and rebounds for the 11th time this season and fourth time across the past six games.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
