Week 16 of the NFL season marks the start of Saturday kickoffs. To start the weekend the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans which is set to kick off at 1:00 PM EST.
The Chiefs have already clinched the AFC West division title and enter this matchup with a 13-1 record. The worst fears coming out of last week did not come to life as Patrick Mahomes is expected to get the start at quarterback following the ankle injury he sustained last week. Mahomes took a full workload at practice and does not hold an injury designation.
The Texans have also clinched their divisional title and lead the AFC South with their 9-5 record. There has been plenty of noise made regarding C.J. Stroud taking a step back in his second season, but the young quarterback still has performed much better than the majority of QB options. Houston still has all their season-long goals in play and this will be a nice measuring stick matchup against the back-to-back defending champions.
The Chiefs enter this game as 3.5-point favorites in the matchup and -185 on the Moneyline. The Texans are +154 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 42.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Saturday afternoon matchup.
Patrick Mahomes Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While Patrick Mahomes has made as much of a case as anyone for being superhuman, expect the ankle injury to play a bigger role than the Chiefs are leading on. Mahomes took a nasty hit at the tail end of last week’s game and had a notable limp when leaving the stadium. Kansas City is also set to play again on Christmas, meaning this will be three games in 11 days which is a brutal schedule.
Beyond the injuries, the Texans’ defense has been impressive in defending the pass this year. They are holding opponents to the fourth-fewest overall yards and sixth-fewest passing yards this season. Houston also leads the league in opponents’ completion percentage, ranks second in dropback EPA, and is first in opponent dropback success. They have held opponents to under 200 passing yards in nine of their 14 games this season.
While the bar of expectations is sky high, Mahomes has had a mild passing outlook this year by his standards. The two-time MVP is averaging 239.1 passing yards per game this season which is the lowest output of his career. Mahomes has been held under 226.5 passing yards six times already this season. Expect the star quarterback to struggle with his usual ad-lib plays when he escapes the pocket and for the Texans’ defense to assert themselves in this matchup. Mahomes is too talented to keep fully contained but the 226.5 passing-yard line is too high based on his injury status and the success of the Texans’ defense. Look for him to remain under this number for the seventh time this year.
Joe Mixon Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
There has not been enough credit given to Joe Mixon for his strong output on the season. Lost in the shuffle of successful running backs, Mixon has tallied 910 rushing yards across just 11 games of action this year. The Oklahoma product has rushed for over 100 yards in seven different games this season. He is also tied for seventh in the NFL in rushing touchdowns and has a chance to feast against a struggling Chiefs rush defense.
On the season overall, the Chiefs rank third in rushing yards allowed and seventh in rushing touchdowns conceded. However, they have given up 538 rushing yards across the past five games at a healthy 4.4 yards per carry. The Browns ran for a combined 139 rushing yards last week in their loss to the Chiefs. While Mixon was limited to just 23 rushing yards due to an ankle injury last week, he told reporters he plans on playing despite limited practice this week.
The Chiefs are at their most dangerous when the ball is in their hands. Expect the Texans to make a conscious effort to control the pace of play and limit opportunities for Kansas City to have the ball. This will involve keeping the ball on the ground and for Mixon to be heavily involved in the plan of attack. He ranks 10th in the NFL in total rushing attempts despite only playing 11 games and will welcome plenty of opportunities. Mixon is averaging 82.7 rushing yards per game and should have no problem eclipsing 63.5 rushing yards in this matchup.
Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+115)
Both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco will continue to play a role in the rushing game for Kansas City. Last week they each received 13 carries, however, Pacheco recorded 14 carries the week prior compared to Hunt rushing the ball just five times. Pacheco has not found his way into the end zone since before his injury in Week 2 which forced him to miss nine games.
This is destined to change at some point and the ankle injury to Patrick Mahomes should force a more a more run-oriented approach than the Chiefs prefer. Houston has had some success defending the run this season and enters this matchup ranked 10th in rushing yards allowed and is tied for the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the NFL. However, they are 29th in passing touchdowns allowed and this Texans team also allowed 119 rushing yards and a touchdown just three games ago. When looking at the Texans’ schedule, Pacheco ranks on the higher side of running backs they have faced.
In the three weeks since both running backs have been active, it has been an even split for Hunt and Pacheco in the red zone. While there is more value in the +245 odds of Hunt getting in, the extra opportunities on the ground that Pacheco saw two weeks ago are a concern from that perspective. Expect both running backs to play a role and for Kansas City to lean on each more than usual as Mahomes plays through his ankle issues. Count on the Rutgers product to get the top opportunities to score and for Pacheco to make his way into the end zone for the first time since Week 1.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
