In the second leg of the Week 15 Monday night doubleheader, the Las Vegas Raiders will host the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons hold a 6-7 record on the season and are desperate for a victory to stay in the playoff mix. Kirk Cousins has not been able to elevate the offense as was hoped and he has not thrown a passing touchdown across the past four games. Overall, Atlanta ranks 19th in scoring on the season and 26th in points allowed.
It has been an even more disastrous season for the Raiders who enter this game with a 2-11 record with star rusher Maxx Crosby undergoing season-ending surgery this week. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell is officially listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup, but the expectation is Desmond Ridder will get the start. While players and coaches will continue to play for future job opportunities, the Raiders’ focus as an organization has already shifted to next season. They rank 27th in scoring this season and 31st in points allowed.
The Falcons enter this game as 6-point favorites and -298 on the Moneyline. The Raiders are +240 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 44.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the second half of the Monday doubleheader.
Tyler Allgeier Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
While Bijan Robinson will headline the rushing attack, Tyler Allgeier will continue to see a role in the offense. Looking at the season-long sample size, Robinson has carried the ball 215 times for 977 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. In comparison, Allgeier has received 102 carries, which he has converted to 508 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Allgeier has received at least three carries in 12 of the 13 games. He has also recorded eight or more carries across three of the past four weeks and run for over 27.5 yards in eight games this season. Count on the Falcons leaning on the rushing attack heavily in this game, especially when factoring in Kirk Cousins’ recent struggles.
Looking at the matchup, the Raiders rank 31st in points allowed and 12th in yards given up. They also rank 13th in rushing yards allowed, 14th in rushing touchdowns conceded and 15th in net yards per rush attempt. Las Vegas has allowed 109+ total rushing yards in eight of the 13 games this season. Expect the Falcons to grab a lead in the matchup and lean on the rushing attack to bleed out the clock. This will lead to plenty of opportunities for both Robinson and Allgeier and the second-string running back should see an increase in opportunity compared to his average of 7.8 rush attempts per game. Expect him to make the most of these opportunities and eclipse 27.5 rushing yards in tonight’s matchup.
Kyle Pitts Over 2.5 Receptions (-115)
Since he entered the NFL, Kyle Pitts has been a much more theoretical talent than his statistical output shows. While the talent is clear, Pitts has struggled to consistently put together strong performances. He enters this game with just two combined receptions across the past three weeks despite being targeted 11 times. Overall, Pitts has tallied 60 receptions for 508 yards and three touchdowns this season.
This matchup with the Raiders defense could be the cure for Pitts’ struggles. Las Vegas has allowed 77 receptions to tight ends this season, which is the third-most in the NFL. Just last week, Cade Otton tallied three receptions for 70 yards and the week prior Travis Kelce had seven receptions for 68 yards while Noah Gray added four receptions for 58 yards. This is a matchup built for tight ends to have success, and there may need to be some deeper conversations regarding Pitts if this is not the case.
Expect this to be a breakout opportunity for the former fourth-overall pick. He has tallied at least three receptions in seven of the 13 games played this season and against tougher opponents. Look for the Falcons to make a clear effort to put the ball in his hands and for Pitts to record at least three catches tonight.
Brock Bowers Anytime TD (+170)
If there is one bright spot on this Las Vegas Raiders team it is Brock Bowers. This year’s 13th overall pick has made a Rookie of the Year case for himself and tallied 87 receptions for 933 yards and four touchdowns this season. Bowers has proven to be a staple in the Raiders’ offense and is their most dangerous weapon in the passing attack.
While Kirk Cousins has received the majority of the blame, the Falcons’ defense has been even more problematic this season. Atlanta ranks 26th in points allowed and 23rd in yards given up. It has allowed the most passing touchdowns of any team in the league and is 25th in passing yards conceded.
While the quarterback issues are a notable hurdle here, Bowers will be the clear-cut top option regardless of who is throwing the football. He is a red-zone threat and also has the playmaking ability to break free in the open field for a long touchdown. The Georgia product has reached the end zone four times this season, including three of the past five games. Expect him to remain the focal point of the offense by taking a chance on the +170 odds for an anytime touchdown. It is worth a swing with the primetime lights on him.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
