To cap off an eventful Week 15 of NFL football, the Green Bay Packers will travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks. Both these teams hold playoff aspirations and this game will carry some significant playoff implications.
Seattle holds an 8-5 record and has a half-game lead over the Rams in the NFC West. They enter this game on a four-game winning streak and control their destiny from a playoff perspective. The Seahawks rank 13th in scoring on the season and 11th in points allowed.
Green Bay has a 9-4 record but is in third place in the NFC North so are chasing a Wild Card spot. A win would go a long way here, and the team is coming off extra rest after their loss to the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football last week. The Packers have won seven of their last nine games with both losses coming at the hands of the Lions. They rank seventh in scoring and ninth in points allowed this season.
The Packers enter this game as 3-point favorites and -148 on the moneyline. The Seahawks are +124 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 46.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Sunday night clash.
Tucker Kraft Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
In his second season in the NFL, Tucker Kraft has had an impressive breakout year. So far this year he has tallied 39 receptions for 521 yards and seven touchdowns. Each of these numbers are already significant leaps forward from his rookie-year production and Kraft has earned a notable role in this Packers offense.
Kraft has recorded over 34.5 receiving yards in six weeks this season including the past two games. He has tallied two or more receptions in 12 of the 13 games this season and proved to be one of the more reliable pass catchers in Green Bay’s well-rounded passing attack.
Seattle has struggled to defend tight ends this season. They are allowing an average of 58.7 receiving yards per game at the tight end position which includes two tight ends recording over 100 receiving yards this season. This includes Trey McBride recording 70 receiving yards last week and 12 receptions for 133 yards to McBride two weeks earlier.
While Kraft is not the caliber of a playmaker of McBride, this is a vulnerable spot in the Seahawks defense. Look for Green Bay to have it in their game plan to exploit this and for Kraft to see a healthy dose of targets. Count on him to make his impact felt and record over 34.5 receiving yards for the seventh time this season.
Geno Smith Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Joe Burrow has taken the throne for first in each of these categories, but Geno Smith ranks second in passing yards and pass attempts. Overall, Smith is averaging 267.2 passing yards per game and has thrown for over 244.5 passing yards in seven of the 13 games.
Looking at the Packers’ defense, they have had more success with their overall defensive production compared to their pass defense. So far this year they rank ninth in points allowed and 13th in yards given up. However, they rank 22nd in passing yards allowed and 18th in passing touchdowns conceded. Over the past two weeks, the Packers have allowed 336 and 280 passing yards against them.
While Smith’s numbers look solid, he has not played up to the standard he set last year that earned him Comeback Player of the Year. Even still, there are no doubts about his arm talent and Seattle allows Smith to let it fly plenty. Expect this to play itself out today and for the Seahawks quarterback to see plenty of volume of opportunity. Expect Smith to give the team every chance possible to win this game and throw for over 244.5 passing yards tonight.
DK Metcalf Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
There is some fear that Jaxson Smith-Njigba has overtaken DK Metcalf as the top wide receiver option on the Seahawks. Looking at the season overall, Smith-Njigba has tallied 75 receptions for 911 yards and five touchdowns. In contrast, Metcalf has been held to 54 receptions for 812 yards and three touchdowns.
While recent box scores indicate otherwise, look for Metcalf to reannounce his presence in primetime. Since the Week 10 bye, Metcalf is seeing 7.3 targets per game compared to 6.8 for Smith-Njigba. Metcalf also remains the big play threat and is seeing 37.9 more air yards in these passes. Geno Smith has shown to be one of the most efficient deep ball passers but has not been able to connect for most of this season.
Green Bay is vulnerable in these big play opportunities and has allowed four receivers with 80+ receiving yards across the past three weeks. Even amid his struggles, Metcalf has gone over 61.5 receiving yards in six of the 11 games he has played. He will see a healthy dose of targets to chip away at this and one big play could reach this total in itself. Count on Metcalf to eclipse 61.5 receiving yards for the seventh time this year.
DK Metcalf Most Receiving Yards (+200)
To take it a step further with Metcalf’s production, taking a +200 swing at him to be the leading wide receiver tonight is worth a chance. Looking just at the DraftKings over/under’s for receiving yards, Metcalf holds the second-highest line at 61.5 receiving yards. Only Jaxson Smith-Njigba holds a higher total at 64.5 yards while none of the Packers receivers hold a line higher than 45.5 receiving yards.
The week-to-week variance among Packers’ wide receiver production has made it increasingly difficult to predict. While it is effective from a team perspective, the Packers wide receiver group steps on each other’s toes from a production standpoint. Expect each to have their flashes tonight, but for none to make a strong case for the best wide receiver output.
Instead, look for this to be an internal competition between Metcalf and Smith-Njigba for the top-performing wide receiver. For the same reasons listed in the above section, look for some better luck in the big play category this week and for Metcalf to lead all wide receivers in this game in yards gained.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
