The NBA Cup continues with the two semifinal matchups taking place today. The youthful Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off to decide who will represent the Western Conference. In addition, the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks will face off with both teams playing some extremely high-level basketball in recent games and competing to represent the Eastern Conference.
These will be the only two games on today’s slate as the league continues to prioritize putting the NBA Cup on center stage. To everyone’s credit, the intensity has been ratcheted up in recent games and this should be expected to be the case tonight. While the official winner will be crowned in Tuesday’s championship, both matchups should be exciting today.
You can check out each matchup and all prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my three favorite prop bets of the day for the two NBA Cup matchups.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 50.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-115)
Big-time players make big-time plays and this should be the expectation for Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight. The two-time MVP has been at the heart of Milwaukee’s turnaround and it enters this game having won eight of its past 10 games. Antetokounmpo is averaging 32.7 points (most in the NBA), 11.4 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game on the season.
Looking at this matchup, the Hawks have leaned more on their defense this season, which is a difference in identity from past years. The organization has surrounded Trae Young with several versatile athletic wings and has seen great success with this. Players like Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and De’Andre Hunter each make their impact felt. Expect this to continue to be the case today and for their impact to be bothersome to Damian Lillard and Milwaukee’s other offensive creators.
Antetokounmpo will be an outlier for this. Expect the eight-time All-Star to make use of his 6-foot-11 frame and relentless ability to attack the basket. This will be the second matchup between these two teams with Atlanta producing a 119-104 victory in the matchup on Dec. 4th. Antetokounmpo finished with 31 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in that loss. The Greek Freak got to the free-throw line 26 times in the matchup, so expect a similar plan of attack today. Milwaukee is limited in the number of other offensive creators it has, and the team will need more from its superstar tonight.
Antetokounmpo has recorded over 50.5 combined points, rebounds and assists eight times already this season. Atlanta does not have a player capable of matching his level of physicality and size. The superstar is at his best when the lights are the brightest, so expect his fingerprints to be all over this game en route to eclipsing 50.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Jabari Smith Over 7.5 Rebounds (+100)
The Houston Rockets are loaded with young talent who are competing with each other for their importance to the team. Jabari Smith seemed to be on the outside looking in more than expected through the first part of the season. The 2022 No. 3 overall pick has emerged once again in recent weeks and is showing his importance to the team. Through the opening 25 games, Smith is averaging 11.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game across his 30.3 minutes of play.
While Smith has only reached this number in nine of the 25 games thus far, he has had a stronger effort on the boards in recent games. Across the past five games, he has averaged 7.0 defensive rebounds per game and recorded total rebounding outputs of 12 and 14 rebounds in two of the games. This 14-rebound performance also occurred against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder are a polished team that checks just about every box you look for in a contender. Perhaps the only exception to this is rebounding the basketball. Oklahoma City ranks 20th in total rebounding and dead last in opponent rebounds per game. When Chet Holmgren returns to the floor and can share it with Isaiah Hartenstein this could be solved, but Holmgren is still weeks away from returning.
Looking at today’s game, expect rebounding to play a major role in deciding the outcome. Smith is currently third on the team in rebounding but is below his rebounding outputs of 7.2 and 8.1 per game from the past two seasons. His level of opportunity has increased in recent games and this is a matchup where he can impose himself. Smith played a season-high 40:02 of game action in the first matchup with the Thunder and collected 14 rebounds in the process. Expect him to replicate this with the NBA Cup on the line and for Smith to record over 7.5 rebounds today.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 10.5 Assists & Rebounds (-115)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are among the deepest teams in the NBA but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at the heart of the team’s entire production. Last season’s MVP runner-up is averaging 30.2 points, 6.3 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game so far this season. This is a difficult matchup for the former Kentucky guard as Houston has built its identity as a defensive-minded team.
So far this season, Houston ranks third in opponent points per game, second in defensive efficiency and second in opponent field-goal percentage. The Rockets’ roster is littered with athletic, versatile wings who rank among the better defenders in the NBA. While Gilgeous-Alexander will still have his moments of offensive success, expect a focused effort from the Rockets to limit his scoring and for the two-time All-Star to impact the game in different ways.
In the first matchup between these two teams, Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 32 points, eight rebounds and five assists. He has tallied over 10.5 assists and rebounds in 13 of the 24 games this season. The increase in talent on the rest of the Thunder’s roster has allowed Gilgeous-Alexander to take a step back and serve as a playmaker more often. His 6.3 assists per game this season is currently a career-high mark.
Expect this matchup to be a defensive-minded game and for Gilgeous-Alexander to have to impact the game beyond just the score sheet. Look for him to be involved as both a playmaker and in rebounding the basketball as Gilgeous-Alexander eclipses 10.5 rebounds and assists for the 14th time this season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
