After a huge storm caused the postponement of the final Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park, the league leaders have a game in hand with Chelsea fast rising. Liverpool will return to action this weekend with a home fixture against Liverpool, while Chelsea will host Brentford.
For Premier League fans, there are plenty of bets available on Liverpool, Chelsea, and more at DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my top betting picks for this weekend’s Premier League slate.
First, let’s take a look at the full schedule for Matchweek 16:
Everton at Arsenal, 10 a.m. EST, December 14
Liverpool at Fulham, 10 a.m. EST, December 14
Leicester City at Newcastle, 10 a.m. EST, December 14
Ipswich Town at Wolves, 10 a.m. EST, December 14
Aston Villa at Nottingham Forest, 12:30 p.m. EST, December 14
Crystal Palace at Brighton, 9 a.m. EST, December 15
Manchester United at Manchester City, 11:30 a.m. EST, December 15
Brentford at Chelsea, 2 p.m. EST, December 15
Southampton at Tottenham Hotspur, 2 p.m. EST, December 15
West Ham United at AFC Bournemouth, 3 p.m. EST, December 16
Nicolas Jackson Anytime Scorer (+105)
The Blues are flying high, picking up four consecutive wins and outscoring opponents 14-5 in that stretch. After their recent attacking outburst, Chelsea leads the Premier League with 35 goals scored in the first 15 games, four more than Brentford and Tottenham, who are tied for second. Enzo Maresca’s team are firing on all cylinders and are truly in the thick of a title fight.
Chelsea’s improved attack wouldn’t be possible without the stellar play of Senegalese forward Nicolas Jackson, who has followed up a relatively disappointing first season in the Premier League by improving his statistics across the board.
In particular, he has become a much more tactical finisher. Last season, he recorded 19 goal contributions from 22.9 expected goals + assists. This year, he’s had only 9.1 expected goal contributions, but has turned his opportunities into 8 goals and three assists. Jackson and teammate Cole Palmer (11 goals) have been the most potent attacking duo in the Premier League.
Jackson will have a favorable matchup in Brentford, whose games always bring fireworks. The Bees have scored the second-most goals in the league but have conceded 28, more than all but three squads. Brentford often plays on its back foot, ranking second in the league in terms of touches in its defensive third. Meanwhile, Jackson averages 1.38 successful take-ons per game, which puts him in the 86th percentile among all forwards in Europe’s Top 5 leagues.
Ipswich Town Moneyline (+265)
Another week, another relegation six-pointer, this time between two badly slumping teams, Wolves and Ipswich Town. Last week, Wolves looked a little bit better in a narrow 2-1 defeat to West Ham United. Meanwhile, Ipswich Town snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by conceding two late goals to Bournemouth.
Neither of these teams look great, and both are at major risk of being relegated back down to the Championship, which would end a seven-year stint in the top flight for Wolves. Ipswich have scored just 14 goals this season, better than only Southampton, and have been held scoreless five times. Meanwhile, Wolves have suffered mightily on the back end, conceding 38, seven more than any other club.
Wolves have been better than Ipswich over each team’s current three-match skid, but Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth are a more impressive slate of opponents than Bournemouth, Everton, and West Ham, so we can’t read entirely into expected goal difference. The Tractor Boys have been competitive and scrappy for such a lowly team, losing by multiple goals just four times all season. Close games can be decided by who has the better goalkeeper, and Ipswich’s Arijanet Muric is far superior to Wolves’ José Sá.
Everton UO.5 Goals Scored (-150)
Arsenal was far from clinical last week in a surprising draw against Fulham. The Gunners dominated possession and fired off 12 shots to Fulham’s two, but only William Saliba’s 52nd minute effort after a corner was able to find the back of the net. Despite an expected-goal margin of 1.8 to 0.2, Arsenal walked away with only one point and failed to keep pace with Chelsea in chasing Liverpool at the top of the table.
Meanwhile, Everton are coming off a week’s layoff after their match against Liverpool was canceled due to weather concerns. The Toffees ran up the score in their most recent match, smashing in four goals in a drubbing of Wolves on December 4, but it’s the only win they’ve picked up in their last six matches. They no longer look at risk to be relegated, as they did in the first few weeks of the season, but Arsenal at the Emirates is always challenging.
Everton still has problems in the attack. Despite the offensive outburst against Wolves, the Toffees’ expected goal margin was only 1.0 to 0.8. They haven’t topped 2.0 expected goals all season and have scored just 14, the fewest of any team besides bottom-of-the-table Southampton. Meanwhile, the Gunners have conceded just 15 goals all year behind Saliba and goalkeeper David Raya, who’s enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. Raya’s a good bet to keep his sixth clean sheet of the season on Saturday.
Erling Braut Haaland 3+ Shots on Target (+200)
Arguably the biggest game of the weekend is the Manchester Derby, and, given each team’s poor form, both clubs are feeling more pressure than usual. Manchester United has lost two straight Premier league games after failing to hold off Nottingham Forest last weekend, continuing the struggles that Ruben Amorim has had in his first few weeks at the helm of the team, while Manchester City has suffered defeat in seven of its last 10 in all competitions.
One thing that hasn’t changed for City has been the singular brilliance of Norwegian striker Erling Haaland, who is tied for the Premier League lead with 13 goals and has taken on an even bigger role in City’s attack. One year after scoring 27 league goals and leading City to its fourth consecutive title, he has increased his shots on target from 1.76 per 90 minutes last season to 2.40 per 90 minutes so far in 2024-25. As the season goes on, he will benefit more from the presence of playmaking maestro Kevin De Bruyne, who is back to full fitness after suffering a hamstring injury in September.
I back Haaland to have a quality performance against a Manchester United side that has had a below-average defense by expected goals allowed and has been largely saved by the strong play of goalkeeper Andre Onana. Meanwhile, while City rank only fifth in terms of goals scored, they are third by expected goals. City may be out of the title race, but that won’t stop Haaland from fighting. He’ll put a few quality chances on goal and test Onana on Sunday.
Heung Min Son Anytime Assister (+250)
It hasn’t been the best of seasons for Tottenham’s captain, as the South Korean has only scored four goals and his team just 11th in the table on 20 points. Spurs have been extremely inconsistent all season, losing to 18th-place Ipswich Town but also thrashing Manchester City 4-0. The 32-year-old Son might be finally showing signs of his age, as his 0.38 goals per 90 minutes pace is the second-worst rate in his brilliant Premier League career.
However, Spurs’ attack has been clicking this season, as they are tied for second with 31 goals scored in 15 league games so far this season. Tottenham players have been clinical in their finishing all, finding the back of the net nearly three more times than their expected goals figure of 28.2. Meanwhile, Son’s 0.38 assists per game and 0.48 expected assists per game are both career highs, indicating that the 2021-22 Golden Boot winner might be shifting more into a playmaking role in the latter stages of his career.
He should have plenty of chances to contribute an assist against a hapless Southampton defense that is by far the worst in the Premier League by expected goals allowed. The Saints have allowed opponents to fire off quality shots that were expected to produce 34.6 goals, and although Southampton has enjoyed above-average goalkeeping, 31 shots have still found the back of the net, more than any team besides Wolves. Furthermore, the Saints have allowed opponents to complete 83.8% of passes, the worst mark in the league, which should allow Son, one of the best passers in the league, to thrive.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
