It’s grind time, people. The fantasy playoffs are here, and we can’t afford to make uninformed sit-start decisions as we roll into Week 15 of the NFL season. Green Bay’s flurry of offensive weapons has made it insanely difficult to decide a clear-cut depth order, with targets being spread around to wideouts, tight ends and running backs. Let’s hone in on three of the top guys in this Packers wide receiver room: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. Are any of these options must-starts in our lineups?
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Jayden Reed
Reed is by far one of my favorite players coming out of the class of 2023. He’s morphed into a slot specialist with strong hands, quick acceleration and a go-to guy on third down. Reed is averaging 13.6 fantasy per game, with four 19+ performances and two 30+. While Reed is a solid option on this roster, the Michigan St. alum was only targeted one time last Thursday night vs. the Lions—a target that he didn’t catch, whoops. Fantasy managers (including myself) were not too happy about the 0-1 stat line, but don’t panic! Head coach Matt LaFleur addressed the topic in his Monday presser, stating there were plays designed to go to Reed early in the game that either ended in a sack or a defensive pass interference call, per ESPN’s Rob Demovsky. LaFleur also stated the Lions implemented defensive schemes against the Pack’s three-receiver sets that forced the ball to be thrown, and Green Bay didn’t want to fall into that game.
Overall, I’m not worried about Reed’s lack of usage in Week 14. The Packers’ slot weapon has recorded 293 receiving yards on deep targets from the slot this season, which is the most in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats. He enters a game vs. a Seattle Seahawk’s team that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to slot receivers (13.9). He also will face a daunting matchup with slot corner Devon Witherspoon and a Seattle secondary that utilizes press coverage on 40.3% of snaps this season (5th). However, Reed has caught all six of his targets against press coverage this season for 148 yards and a score. Again, I’m not worried.
To play or not to play? Start him—WR2 in deeper leagues or a FLEX/WR3 in more shallow leagues.
Romeo Doubs
Let’s start with his injury update. Doubs left Week 12’s contest vs. the 49ers with a concussion and sat out of Weeks 13 and 14. The good news is, Doubs practiced in full on Wednesday of this week, but still remains in concussion protocol. If he suits up, I’m weary about putting him in my lineup for Week 15. Doubs is averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game, but has only hit over 15 points twice this season—once being a result of a two-TD outing. With Tucker Kraft rising to the occasion and pulling in the second-most receptions on the team and most red zone targets, Doubs has fluttered to a boom-or-bust receiver that needs a touchdown to make an impact. Not to rain on his parade, but Doubs hasn’t pulled in more than four receptions since Week 7 vs. the Texans and is averaging 7 FPTS in the four games after that. Plus, LaFleur hinted at trying to get Reed the ball more moving forward. Game script changes by the minute, but coming in off of a head injury against a stingy secondary means Doubs might be warming the bench for me.
To play or not to play? Versus the Seahawks? Sit him. But, let’s reevaluate come Week 16 vs. the Saints.
Christian Watson
Watson is a deep-threat, big-bodied target that can burn your secondary if he gets in stride. The issue is, he isn’t the go-to guy on this roster. Watson holds the fourth most targets with only two touchdowns on the season and is averaging just 8.5 fantasy points per game. Rather than being a used in the short, Watson gets utilized downfield with 35.6% of his targets coming in the intermediate (10-19 yards) and 33.3% as deep shots (20+ yards). According to NGS, the Seahawks have allowed just 12 deep completions this season, which is tied for the 10th-fewest in the NFL. This makes this, on paper, not a great matchup for Watson; however, Jordan Love is a gunslinger who has thrown deep at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL this season (14.6%).
Last week, Watson’s pulled in four receptions with his longest hitting 59 yards, and in Week 11, he pulled in four receptions with his longest being 60 yards—similar, I know. Both these games resulted in Watson’s highest fantasy production, concluding he needs those long, deep shots to collect enough yards to bring back fantasy value. With Seattles’ stingy secondary, It’s a risky play, but I’m liking Watson’s upside more than Doubs. Along with Jayden Reed, Watson ranks inside the top 10 in receiving yards over expected against press coverage (+71, 8th), which is notable against Seattle’s press-heavy defense. In the next couple weeks, the Pack will play New Orleans and Minnesota, which are friendly defenses to wide receivers—both defenses rank in the top-six most generous defenses to receivers, per ESPN. I’m ready for a Watson resurgence.
To play or not to play? Start if you have to—WR3 or FLEX.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
