On Thursday Night Football, the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers will face off in a vital divisional clash that could end up deciding who wins the NFC West. The division is currently the tightest in football, with the Seattle Seahawks leading at 8-5, the Rams one game behind them at 7-6, and the 49ers in last at 6-7. Los Angeles can virtually knock its in-state rival out of playoff contention with a victory. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rams are three-point favorites and the point total is set at 49.5.
As DFS players fill out their lineups for contests like NFL Showdown $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (LAR @ SF), they will have a captain’s pick whose salary will be worth 1.5x as much as usual but whose points will also be multiplied by 1.5, as well as five FLEX’s that can be used on any position. While there are many options worthy of consideration for the Captain’s pick, the strongest two are Los Angeles’ tremendous wide receiver duo: Puka Nacua ($16,500 as Captain) and Cooper Kupp ($15,000 as Captain).
Building around either Nacua or Kupp as captain will leave players with $6,700 (Nacua) or $7,000 (Kupp) per FLEX position, which is plenty enough to stack talent. There are enough strong budget options like Rams receiver Tutu Atwell ($2,600) worthy of playing that I’d feel comfortable captaining either player, despite Nacua’s slightly higher price tag.
Both receivers will face an extremely tough matchup against an elite 49ers secondary that has rarely been challenged and has done a good job preventing receivers from recording explosive plays. San Francisco has top ten ranks in virtually every major receiving category. In Los Angeles’ 27-24 victory at SoFi Stadium on September 22, the 49ers held quarterback Matthew Stafford to just 221 yards, his third-lowest output of the season, although both Nacua and Kupp missed that game with injuries.
Of the two, I like Nacua slightly more than Kupp, even though Kupp leads the Rams in target share both overall and in the red zone. Nacua has been more consistent on a week-to-week basis than Kupp has, and has garnered more targets in each of the last three games, including a 12-catch, 162-yard masterpiece against a strong Buffalo Bills defense on Sunday. Pro Football Focus is also more bullish on Nacua, giving him the second-highest wide receiver grade in the league.
Either way, Thursday will be an intense matchup with a distinctive playoff atmosphere, with both teams fighting for their postseason lives. Nacua burst onto the scene as a rookie last year and I expect him to live up to the moment again on Thursday.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
