The knockout stages of the Emirates NBA Cup are here, and the first quarterfinals tip off tonight with the one-vs-four matchup in each conference. The East game will tip off first, at 7 p.m. ET, and feature the extremely banged-up Orlando Magic traveling to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks.
Orlando had been humming on all cylinders despite the loss of All-Star forward Paolo Banchero to a torn oblique, winning eight of its last 10 games and pulling a game ahead of the New York Knicks for the third seed in the conference. But now Banchero’s co-star, forward Franz Wagner, suffered the same injury and will be out for at least four weeks. The next man up is Jalen Suggs; the fourth-year guard is averaging a career-high 16.0 points, 3.9 assists, and 1.5 steals.
With all of their injuries, the Magic (+240) are sizable underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set at 215. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Orlando’s defensive ace.
Best Jalen Suggs Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jalen Suggs O20.5 Points (-115)
Suggs has never been an elite scorer, and even amidst the best offensive season of his career, he isn’t now. With a 49.8% effective field goal percentage, he’s one of the least efficient high-volume shooters in basketball. But none of the Magic’s other projected starters tonight — Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Wendell Carter Jr., Goga Bitadze, and Tristan da Silva — even average nine points per game. The ball has to get in the basket somehow.
Milwaukee has about a league-average defense, with its 113.0 defensive rating ranking 13th in basketball. But its strength primarily lies in the interior, with 2019-20 Defensive Player of the Year Giannis Antetokounmpo and two-time All-Defensive honoree Brook Lopez manning the middle. Perimeter-oriented players like Suggs have found plenty of success against the Bucks.
Wagner’s first missed game of the season came on December 8, in a win against the Phoenix Suns. As the only true offensive option on the team, Suggs posted a season-high 33.6% usage rate and scored 26 points. He’s going to have to put up a similar performance tonight if Orlando wants any chance of pulling off the upset.
Jalen Suggs 4+ Three-Pointers Made (+155)
Because Milwaukee’s defensive schemes primarily emphasize snuffing out interior shots, the Bucks give up a lot of threes. Teams attempt 38.6 shots from deep against Milwaukee, tied for the seventh-highest rate in basketball, and they go in at a 36.4% clip. As a team, Orlando shoots threes at about a league-average clip, but Suggs (7.1 attempts per game) is quietly having his most prolific distance-shooting season yet.
Suggs is far from a sniper from beyond the arc; his 32.0% shooting this season is roughly in line with his career 33.1% average. However, he’s been letting it fly at a greater frequency in recent games, hitting at least four threes in each of his last three games. Given the onus that will be on him as the undisputed number one scoring option tonight and Antetokounmpo’s imposing interior presence, I expect him to extend that streak to four.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
