The Florida Panthers visit the Boston Bruins on Sunday afternoon, with puck drop set for 1:00 p.m. ET at TD Garden. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Boston is a -142 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Bruins vs. Panthers prediction and best bet.
Bruins vs. Panthers Odds
| Market | Florida Panthers | Boston Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +120 | -142 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-218) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-125) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Bruins vs. Panthers Betting Preview
Boston Bruins Outlook
Boston has outscored its opponents 44-22 at 5v5 this season, but its edge in 5v5 xGoals is just 38.2 to 34.5, and its 48.2% 5v5 Corsi% ranks 23rd in the NHL. The Bruins have been finishing well above expectation, with James Hagens scoring all six of his goals at 5v5 on 3.9 total xGoals and Fraser Minten totaling six goals on 4.2 xGoals. David Pastrnak leads the club with eight goals and 22 points. The Bruins have played well in front of their fans at TD Garden, too, going 7-1-0.
The goaltending has made things especially easy, as Boston’s +12.5 team GSAx ranks first in the NHL. I’d expect Jeremy Swayman to draw the start today on full rest after Michael DiPietro stopped 17 of 19 shots on Thursday against Pittsburgh, and Swayman’s +7.3 GSAx and +1.09% SV% above expected rank sixth and 12th, respectively, among 75 goaltenders. One area of weakness is its special teams, with the Bruins’ power play ranking 22nd (19.6%) and their penalty kill ranking 16th (76.8%).
Florida Panthers Outlook
Florida’s 55.2% 5v5 Corsi% ranks fourth despite a middling 9-6-2 record, and the Panthers are tied for the second-fewest 5v5 xGoals against per 60 (2.11). Yet, they’ve been outscored 33-27 at 5v5 on 29.8 xGoals for and 27.6 against. The power play has kept the offense afloat, scoring 18 goals at 5-on-4 and converting 23.7% of its opportunities (10th).
Matthew Tkachuk leads with 25 points, 21 of them assists, and his brother, Brady Tkachuk, has a team-high 10 goals, which have come on 8.1 xGoals. Florida still remains without Aleksander Barkov (knee), who has been on long-term injured reserve since Oct. 3. This is also the second night of a back-to-back after losing 4-3 to Washington on Saturday, but Akira Schmid started that one. That leaves Jacob Markstrom ready to go on fresh legs. Markstrom was activated from injured reserve on Nov. 2, and he sports an .885 SV% with a -0.4 GSAx (34th) and a -0.12% SV% above expected (33rd).
Bruins vs. Panthers Prediction and Best Bet
These teams have played tight games lately, as none of their past five meetings were decided by more than a goal, and Florida won three of them, including a 2-1 home win in the most recent meeting on April 2 last season. Swayman can steal games whenever he feels like it, but with Markstrom well rested and the Panthers dominating 5v5 play, I’ll take a chance on Florida at plus money.
Best Bet: Panthers Moneyline (+120)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
