Just three weeks since Jon Jones knocked out Stipe Miocic at Madison Square Garden, the promotion is back in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 310 on December 7. The reigning and defending Undisputed UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja is defending his title against newcomer Kai Asakura. The co-main event features a battle between two undefeated fighters, Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0) and Ian Machado Garry (15-0).
Check out my best bets below for UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura.
Alexandre Pantoja Moneyline (-265)
Although Pantoja has an unlikely opponent in front of him, that doesn’t mean he isn’t scary. Asakura is as dangerous a fighter as Pantoja has faced lately. Asakura is one of the scariest fighters to enter the UFC from an outside promotion. He is known for his vicious knees and ground and pound.
But Pantoja has been tested before, and he has figured out different ways to get his hand raised. His ground game is elite, and he has recently improved his striking ability. Pantoja is the smaller fighter in height and reach, but Asakura cuts a lot more weight.
If Pantoja can takedown Asakura early in this contest, he will have a great chance to find success with either a submission or strikes. Pantoja has 18 total finishes in his MMA career, with 10 submissions. He has also submitted two of his previous five opponents.
Ian Machado Garry Moneyline (+310)
When Garry was matched up with fellow undefeated fighter Shavkat Rakhmonov, I expected this line to be close to 50-50. Rakhmonov is 18-0 with 18 finishes, while Garry is 15-0 with eight finishes. Even though Garry hasn’t finished all of his opponents in his MMA or UFC career, he still has dominated and picked apart each fighter across from him.
Certain fighters come into the sport, and from the very beginning, they possess that unique aura. Garry has just that. He is meticulous with every word he says and fights he takes and has dialed in his training. Since he first stepped into the UFC Octagon at UFC 268 in November 2021, it has all been building to this moment. The moment when Garry would step into the cage across from another rising contender who is just as talented and accomplished as him. Rakhmonov is that to a tee.
Most fighters wait until the perfect moment to fight a top-tier fighter. But not Garry. Garry signed to fight No. 9 Joaquin Buckley on December 14. Then, when Muhammad was forced to withdraw from his title defense against Rakhmonov, Garry stepped up and raised his hand to face one of the most dangerous prospects in the company’s history.
Garry is on the verge of breaking through to superstardom. If he can defeat the unbeatable and undefeated Rakhmonov, he will enter a new place in the sport.
Garry is the taller fighter by two inches, while Rakhmonov has a three-inch reach advantage. Rakhmonov has been known as an incredibly well-rounded fighter, but Garry is the more proficient striker on the feet. Garry lands 1.38 more significant strikes per minute than Rakhmonov does. Even though Rakhmonov is a lethal finisher on the ground, he only has a 29 percent takedown accuracy.
Garry has been improving his skills on the ground with Charles Oliveira. If he can make this a standup fight and successfully defend takedowns, this is his fight to lose. Getting Garry at +310 on DraftKings Sportsbook is an excellent value play at UFC 310.
Ciryl Gane to Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+350)
Gane fought Alexander Volkov in June 2021, but much has changed since then. Volkov has been on an incredible run, going 4-1 with three finishes. The only fighter Volkov lost to since he fought Gane was Tom Aspinall, the current interim heavyweight champion.
Since they fought, Gane has experienced the highest of highs and lowest of lows. He won the interim title with three knockouts but lost his two undisputed title fights. After Jon Jones submitted Gane in March 2023, he returned a few months later and knocked out Serghei Spivac in the second round.
Gane didn’t just lose to anyone, though; he lost to Francis Ngannou and Jones, arguably the two greatest heavyweights in the world. After losing to Jones, he returned with a vengeance in September, but another big performance is needed to get back to a title shot. Gane is a big -375 favorite, but the value is to get Gane to win by knockout. His last three wins have come by knockout. If Gane pressures Volkov more often than in their first fight, a finish should be in his future.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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