The Week 14 edition of Thursday Night Football sees the 11-1 Lions host the 9-3 Packers in an exciting NFC North battle. The Lions are 3.5-point favorites over the Packers with a total of o/u 51 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just via traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Packers at Lions Pick6 Plays
The NFC North is one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL with the Lions sitting atop the pack. The Packers are one of the teams vying with the Lions for the division as they sit at 9-3. The Lions won the first matchup between these teams so the Packers will want revenge in this game.
Here are my top Pick6 plays for the Thursday night NFC North matchup.
Jordan Love More Than 248.5 Passing Yards
The Lions are elite on the defensive side of the ball, but Jordan Love is not afraid to attack their secondary. Love threw for 273 yards the first time these teams faced off and, overall, Love has cleared this number in three of his past four games. The Packers are not going to knock off the Lions with a passive game plan, so look for Love to take a few deep shots early on in this game to pick up some big gains.
The Lions have a top five pass defense when measuring by EPA/dropback. However, their offense has almost been a detriment to their pass defense in terms of conventional statistics. On paper, the Lions are 25th in the league in passing yards allowed. The Lions have jumped out to so many big leads this season that their opponents are forced to throw on them and take deep shots to hang around or get back into games. That was necessary the first time these squads faced this season and should be necessary again, leading to a path where Love clears his passing prop.
Jared Goff More Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Jared Goff is having a monster season for the Lions and should keep it rolling in this crucial divisional game. Goff is fifth in the NFL in passing touchdowns this season. He is averaging 2.0 passing touchdowns per game at home and has two-plus passing touchdowns in eight out of 10 games during the Lions’ current winning streak. The Packers rank 31st in defensive passing success rate so Goff should be able to stay ahead of the chains. That will lead to him being able to hit a deep shot touchdown on play-action and it also means he should find success in the red zone.
Josh Jacobs More Than 64.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Jacobs is having an incredible season for the Packers. He is third in the league in rushing yards behind only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. Jacobs had a rough game on the ground last week against Miami, but had a huge day as a pass-catcher. Prior to that Miami game, Jacobs had eclipsed this number of 64.5 rushing yards in five straight games.
The Lions have the best defense in the NFL by EPA/play. They are top five in defensive EPA against the pass and the run. That being said, Josh Jacobs ran really well against them last time they faced off. Jacobs had 95 rushing yards on just 13 carries, including a long run of 37 yards. The best defense to stop the Lions’ elite offense is keeping that offense off the field. The Packers should try to run the ball and control the clock, racking up the yardage for Jacobs.
Jayden Reed Less Than 47.5 Receiving Yards
Earlier this season, Reed was the deep shot specialist for the Green Bay offense. However, in recent weeks his production has plummeted. The Packers’ skill position players are great as a unit. However, in the passing game, they don’t have a true No. 1 receiver. That has led to the ball being distributed around so much that one receiver rarely has a ceiling game. Reed has had 26 receiving yards or less in each of his past three games, despite scoring three touchdowns across that span.
Reed has become a favorite target of Jordan Love’s in red zone situations, but teams are taking away that deep shot that he was so effective at earlier this season. Over that three-game stretch, Reed didn’t have a catch go for more than 15 yards. That makes it really difficult to clear 47.5 yards when you are only getting three or four targets per game. Last week against the Dolphins, tight end Tucker Kraft and running back Josh Jacobs were the two receiving leaders for the Packers. The Lions’ defense is second in the league in EPA/dropback and should limit any deep shots. Between that defense and the Packers’ plethora of targets, Reed should stay under this number.
Brandon McManus More Than 6.5 Kicking Points
Brandon McManus has done an amazing job since getting signed by the Packers. He is perfect on extra points this season and 10-for-11 on field goals. McManus is 1-for-1 on 50-plus yards field goals this season and, inside a dome at Ford Field, he should be able to hit from a good distance if needed. This should be a high-scoring game and that will give McManus plenty of chances to rack up kicking points. The Lions are second in the NFL in opponent red zone touchdown percentage. That means they are holding teams to field goals more often than almost every defense in the league and that should lead to at least two attempts from McManus, which would then only require one extra point to go over this number.
Jameson Williams More Than 47.5 Receiving Yards
Jameson Williams has been the deep-shot target for Jared Goff all season. Williams is 15th in the NFL in yards per reception at 18.5. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and the running back duo are all such dangerous possession receivers. That is who Goff targets when it comes to staying ahead of the chains or picking up a key first down. However, when he wants to take a shot downfield, Jameson Williams is that guy.
In fact, Jameson Williams would have cleared this number on just one catch in four different games this season. Overall, Williams has gone over this number in seven out of ten games and he should be able to do so against Green Bay, as well. Williams missed the game when these teams played earlier this season and it was a dynamic missing from the Detroit offense. Williams should be ready to face a divisional opponent at home where he has been so good this season. Williams is averaging 20.6 yards per catch at home compared to 15.2 on the road. His four longest catches of the season have all been at home.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of two or more players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing two or more players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
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