The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers will square off on the Week 14 edition of Thursday Night Football. Both of these NFC North teams are firmly in the playoff conversation and are coming Thanksgiving wins last week.
Detroit has climbed to the Super Bowl favorite at +300 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and enters with an 11-1 overall record. While the Lions were able to defeat the Chicago Bears last week, there were some points of concern as the game ended far closer than it should have. Even still, the Lions lead the NFL in scoring at 31.9 points per game and rank second in points allowed at 16.9 on the season. They will be a tough matchup for any team and Green Bay will be seeking revenge after dropping the first matchup 24-14 on Nov. 3.
The Packers enter with a 9-3 record and are sixth in Super Bowl odds at +1400. Green Bay is on a three-game win streak and ranks eighth in scoring at 26.5 points per game while holding opponents to 20 points per game, which ranks ninth in the NFL.
The Lions enter this game as three-point favorites in the matchup and -170 on the moneyline. The Packers are +142 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 51.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Thursday Night clash.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
While the passing game steals the spotlight, don’t let it get lost that the Lions’ identity remains in their rushing attack. Detroit ranks fourth in rushing yards as a team producing 154.4 rushing yards per game. They trail only the Ravens, Eagles and Commanders, who each benefit from having a dual-threat quarterback.
On top of this, Jahmyr Gibbs has been the clear-cut top running back in the Detroit backfield. Gibbs is averaging 81.1 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry on the season. In contrast, David Montgomery is averaging 60.0 rushing yards per game and producing 4.3 yards per carry. Gibbs has recorded over 66.5 rushing yards in four consecutive games and nine of the 12 games overall.
While Green Bay has a solid defense that ranks eighth in rushing yards allowed, expect Gibbs to put this to the test. He was held to 65 rushing yards in the first matchup but had just 11 carries. Gibbs holds big play potential on any touch and expect him to break free for over 66.5 yards for the 10th time this season on Thursday Night Football.
Jordan Love Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Jordan Love is averaging 251.8 passing yards per game this season. He has thrown for 253 or more yards in six of the 10 games he has played, including as many as 398 passing yards this season. He threw for 273 yards in the Week 9 matchup with the Lions.
Unfortunately, the Detroit defense should make its impact felt even more in this matchup. While they have been impressive since the start of the season, the Lions have looked especially great in recent weeks. Since Week 8, they have led the NFL in opponent dropback EPA and rank second in opponent dropback rate. The Lions are allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt since this point which is the eighth-best rate in the NFL. On the season overall, Detroit ranks second in points allowed, 10th in yards given up, second in passing touchdowns allowed and 10th in net yards per pass attempt. While they rank 25th in total passing yards allowed, much of this has come late in games with the Lions up big. Detroit has held opponents to less than 252.5 passing yards every week since facing Love in Week 9.
Expect the Lions’ defense to have more success this time around. The defensive unit has been clicking on all cylinders, and this will be the toughest defense opponent Love has faced since their first matchup. Expect the young QB to have his flashes, but ultimately to be held under 252.5 passing yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Amon-Ra St. Brown deserves more consideration in the best NFL wide receiver conversation. Detroit’s top pass-catcher has tallied 76 receptions for 820 yards and nine touchdowns this season. He ranks 12th in the NFL in receiving yards, is tied for second in receiving touchdowns and has been especially impressive in recent weeks.
The Packers’ defense ranks ninth in points allowed and 12th in total yards given up this year. Looking at their pass defense, they rank 17th in yards allowed, 14th in passing touchdowns conceded and 16th in net yards per pass attempt.
St. Brown has seen an uptick in targets in recent weeks. He has had at least seven passes thrown his way in each of the past five games after reaching this number just three times across the first seven weeks. Overall, he is averaging 68.3 receiving yards per game and has gone over 68.5 receiving yards five times. Expect St. Brown to see plenty of targets and gradually chip away at this total. He was held to just 56 yards in the first matchup but has recorded at least 60 yards in each game since. He will see the volume of opportunities for catches and count on this equating to over 68.5 yards in the air.
Any Non-QB to Have 1+ Pass Attempt on the Detroit Lions (+250)
The Detroit Lions have leaned on creative and trick plays more than any other team this season. Ben Johnson has built up his resume as a future head coach by continuing to coach what looks like the most dynamic offense in the league. This was put on full display on Thanksgiving when a play was put in place for OT Penei Sewell to throw a pass. Five different players have attempted a pass for the Lions this season.
While this is more of a fun bet located in the player specials section on DraftKings Sportsbook, the +250 odds are pretty solid value. Detroit has dug deeper and deeper into their playbook as the season has progressed. The Lions have run 11 fake punts since Dan Campbell took over as head coach in 2021, which is five more than any other team in the NFL. They have converted on nine of these attempts. Montgomery and St. Brown have each completed a pass this season.
It takes just one play for this to hit and the Lions tend to make the most of the primetime spotlight. They have only looked more adventurous in their play call as the season progressed and have had success with many of these opportunities. Expect them to attempt one trick or creative play and if it involves a pass attempt, you are on the inside track for +250 odds.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
