Prop The Mic (ProptheMic on X) broke down their favorite NBA betting plays and created two parlays on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s NBA betting card using their exclusive “Correlation Tool.”
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons
Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ Points (-165)
Giannis has been on a tear lately, averaging 38 points over his last four games. He is facing a Pistons team that he scored 59 points against earlier this season. He has also scored 31+ points in six straight games with 30+ minutes against the Pistons, but has only cleared his line of 32.5 points in two of those six games. He’s also only cleared 32.5 points in 47% of his games this season. If we alt his points line down to 30+ points his hit rate this season rises to 65% of games. This however is priced around -165 on DraftKings Sportsbook. So how do we get this closer to an even money bet?
MIL Bucks Over 106.5 Alternate Total Points (-238)
Using the Prop The Mic Correlation Tool we see that the Bucks have scored 107 or more points in 10 of 11 games this season when Giannis has cleared 30+ points. This includes 127 team points vs Detroit earlier this season. The Bucks Team total for tonight’s game is 111.5 points––if we use the Same Game Parlay (SGP) feature, we can alt this Team Total line down to 106.5 points and combine it with Giannis to score 30+ points. This gives us a beautiful two-leg SGP with odds of -110!
Same Game Parlay (SGP) odds: -110
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Victor Wembanyama Points (-125)
We can also utilize player-to-player correlations to unlock value in our parlays. Wemby is one of the hottest players in this past week, scoring 25+ points in six of his last seven games. He faces the Phoenix Suns tonight who are giving up the eighth-most points to opposing centers this season, including recent big games to Anthony Davis (25 & 35 points), Karl-Anthony Towns (34), and John Collins (29). With Jusuf Nurkić OUT again today, Wemby is in a great position to dominate. His scoring line of 24.5 points at -125 odds is a great value as a standalone bet, however let’s find a way to improve our odds through correlation.
Chris Paul 8+ Assists (-175)
Chris Paul is the point guard for the San Antonio Spurs. Logically, if Wemby is scoring, then Paul is assisting. Paul has cleared 8+ assists in 65% of his games this season, but if we isolate to only games in which Wemby scored 25+ points in the Prop The Mic Correlation Tool, we see this hit rate increase to 75% (6 of 8) games. If we put Wemby 25+ points with Paul 8+ assists together in a Same Game Parlay (SGP) on DraftKings Sportsbook, we improve our SGP odds to an amazing +166.
Same Game Parlay (SGP) odds: +166
For more plays from Prop The Mic, check them out on X at ProptheMic!
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.