The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks were both extremely active in the spree of player movement that took place over the NBA offseason. The Bucks finally ended the Giannis Antetokounmpo era, shipping him to the Miami Heat for a package that included Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, and Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Toronto reunited with the main man on its 2018/19 NBA championship-winning team, Kawhi Leonard.
Tonight, these new-look sides will face each other at 8 p.m. ET near the shores of Lake Michigan in an Emirates NBA Cup East Group A showdown. After losing their opener to the Orlando Magic, the Raptors currently sit third in the group, while Milwaukee has yet to play its first game.
Toronto will continue to be without Leonard, who’s out for at least another week with swelling in his knee, as well as Nate Bittle (foot), Kevin McCullar Jr. (G-League), and Malachi Smith (G-League), with Kyle Anderson (illness), Scottie Barnes (adductor), and Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) questionable and Jakob Poeltl (shoulder) probable. Kam Jones (G-League), Bogoljub Markovic (G-League), Pete Nance (G-League), and Cormac Ryan (G-League) are the only players out for the Bucks.
The Raptors are 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-249 Moneyline), with the point total set to 231.5. The Bucks are +205 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this 2019 Eastern Conference Finals rematch and offer a prediction.
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks preview, prediction
Leonard hasn’t been much of a factor for Toronto this season, as he played just two games and was pretty inefficient in those games, but Barnes has averaged 23.5 points per game despite shooting inaccurately from beyond the arc, and RJ Barrett has chipped in 20.9 of his own. Third-year pro Ja’Kobe Walter, who usurped Leonard’s starting spot when he was ruled out, has made some strides as a scorer. The Raptors have been above-average on both sides of the ball, ranking seventh in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating, so they’ve arguably gotten unlucky to be just 4-4.
Milwaukee entered the season understanding that it was at the start of a lengthy rebuilding process, and so far, that’s exactly what has transpired; besides a win over the Indiana Pacers, who were missing two starters, the Bucks have been largely uncompetitive. Herro and Jaquez have been fine, as both of them have averaged at least 16 points per game and have shot the ball efficiently, but Ware has not factored much into Milwaukee’s rotation and Ryan Rollins has taken a step back after finishing fifth in Most Improved Player voting last season, losing his spot in the starting lineup to rookie Brayden Burries. All in all, the team has had the league’s fifth-worst offense and fourth-worst defense.
Raptors at Bucks pick, best bet
For their lack of top-level talent, the Bucks have actually done a better job getting to the basket this season than Toronto has, attempting 1.4 more shots per game in the restricted area, although the Raptors have made more close-range shots per game because they’ve finished more efficiently. Here, Barnes’ health could be a factor, since he ranks second on Toronto’s roster with 5.6 restricted-area shots per game, and he’s been more efficient than Barrett on such tries. Barnes’ potential absence would also hurt the Raptors’ rim protection, although Toronto has already been pretty bad at that, as is. Both teams are somewhat vulnerable, as Milwaukee has conceded the third-most layups per game.
The teams have been similarly effective on the glass, but in the long run, I’d expect the rebounding battle to favor the Raptors if Barnes plays, given how horrendous the Bucks were at rebounding after Antetokounmpo’s injury last season. Toronto should be able to extend that edge in transition, as Darko Rajaković’s run-and-gun philosophy has put the Raptors in the top five in points off of turnovers in both 2025/26 and 2026/27 so far. Milwaukee’s inability to get to the charity stripe should give Toronto a respite, since it’s been both the most foul-prone team in the league and the best at getting to the line. Since neither team is very deep, a physical contest should favor the visitors.
Taylor Jenkins has the Bucks shooting threes (first in volume) and Rajaković has the Raptors avoiding them (24th), so if Milwaukee wants to pull off the upset, it’ll need to be lights-out from deep. To the Bucks’ credit, they’ve done a good job doing that so far, attempting the third-most wide-open threes per game, and while they’ve hit their uncontested looks at an unsustainably high rate (Herro and Jaquez especially), Rollins and Kyle Kuzma should be due for some improved shooting overall. The issue is that, on the other end, Toronto has allowed the fewest wide-open threes per game of any team in the league, and it has gotten quite unfortunate that opponents have shot 43.5% on such shots.
Given that Milwaukee’s offense relies on perimeter play and the Raptors’ perimeter defense is so elite, the Bucks might have a tough time putting points on the board tonight, especially if Toronto can force lots of turnovers. Since it draws the fewest fouls in the league, Milwaukee doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage of the Raptors’ indiscipline, allowing them to keep their stars on the floor. The Bucks have scored fewer than 112.5 points in each of their last five games, and Toronto will be poised to do that again.
