After consecutive shutout losses to start their second half, the Cincinnati Reds will look to pull back even in the NL Central with a win in the final game of their big weekend series against the Milwaukee Brewers. First pitch for Sunday’s matinee is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Righty Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.68 ERA) gets the ball for Milwaukee, while Cincy counters with Ben Lively (4-5, 3.83).
The Reds enter as -135 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Brewers at +115. The run total is set at 11.
Brewers-Reds picks: Sunday, July 16
Injury report
Brewers
Out: 1B Rowdy Tellez (forearm), OF Tyrone Taylor (elbow), SP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder), SP/RP Aaron Ashby (shoulder), 1B/DH Darin Ruf (knee), OF Garrett Mitchell (shoulder)
Reds
Out: SP Hunter Greene (hip), SP Nick Lodolo (leg)
Starting pitchers
Adrian Houser vs. Ben Lively
Houser has been a pleasant surprise for a Brewers team that’s needed starting pitching depth, as he’s allowed just one or two runs in four of his last five starts — including seven innings of one-run ball at home against the Reds back in early May. The righty is a pure sinkerballer, not missing many bats (2nd-percentile whiff rate) but firing fastballs in the strike zone and hoping to force as many ground balls as possible — and that those ground balls find gloves.
Lively faced these Brewers just before the All-Star break and put up one of his best starts of the year, allowing just one run on four hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings. With the exception of a rough patch in early June, the righty has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his eight starts this season. He also utilizes a fastball-heavy approach, but his slider is a legit out pitch, with a .140 batting average against and a 37.3% whiff rate.
Over/Under pick
The first two games in this series have seen totals of 1 and 3, and while I’m expecting more runs in the finale, 11 still feels way too high — the Brewers have been a middling offense all year, while the Reds’ bats have struggled of late. Two of the three games these teams played just before the All-Star break in Milwaukee also fell below that number, including a 1-0 game that Lively started.
Pick: Under 11
Moneyline pick
Houser doesn’t seem to be a great fit for Great American Ball Park, one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball — balls in play turn into hits as often there as just about anywhere this side of Coors Field. Houser also struggles against lefties, and with Cincy desperately in need of a win I expect bats like Elly De La Cruz, Joey Votto and TJ Friedl to do enough to get the job done.
Pick: Reds