The Colts are headed to New England for Week 13, but they will be without Josh Downs (shoulder). With Downs sitting, his targets going to other receivers will make them interesting fantasy options in a favorable matchup against the Patriots’ secondary. Let’s take a look at how his absence will impact the depth chart.
The latest on Downs
Downs is officially “week-to-week” after suffering a shoulder injury in the Colts’ 24-6 loss to the Lions. He had three catches for 27 yards on seven targets and had 5.7 fantasy points before departing.
He was ruled out Friday:
Colts HC Shane Steichen: OUT vs. Pats – WR Josh Downs (shoulder), WR Ashton Dulin (ankle), C Tanor Bortolini (concussion), RT Braden Smith (personal).
— Mike Chappell (@mchappell51) November 29, 2024
Since Week 4, Downs has averaged 8.1 targets per contest and has scored four touchdowns while averaging 63.6 yards per game. Some of that work came with Joe Flacco ($4,500) at QB, but he has also been a frequent target of Anthony Richardson ($5,500).
Michael Pittman’s value without Downs
Without Downs, Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,200) will step up as the top receiver. He has 11 catches on 15 targets for 140 yards in the last two weeks with Richardson at QB. He fell just four yards short of his second 100-yard game of the season last week vs. the Lions.
Pittman will be a strong starting option in almost all formats vs. the Patriots, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers this season, including nine wide receiver touchdowns in seven games.
Based on his affordable salary, Pittman will also be a strong play in DFS contests like the NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell as potential value plays
It’s behind Pittman that things get very interesting. Alec Pierce ($4,900) has a high ceiling, as he showed earlier this year, with three touchdowns in the first five weeks and three games over 15 fantasy points.
After a few down games, he had double-digit fantasy points in Week 10 and Week 11. Last week, though, he only hauled in 1-of-4 targets for 39 yards. He did not practice Wednesday or Thursday due to a foot issue, but he returned to the field on Friday.
While he’s much less proven, rookie Adonai Mitchell ($3,900) has a lot of potential, as well. He only has one catch in four of his last five games, but his other performance was a six-catch performance against the Bills with 71 yards and 13.1 fantasy points.
He only had one catch for 10 yards last week and had one target fewer than Pierce.
The bottom line
With Downs sidelined in Week 13, Pittman is a must-start and both Pierce and Mitchell have upside. Both will be high-risk, but have high ceilings with big-play potential. For DFS, Mitchell is a bargain option under $4,000 and wouldn’t have to do much to be a great salary-saver at WR.
The Colts are 2.5-point road favorites against the Patriots with the over/under set at 42.5.
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