The Week 12 edition of Thursday Night Football features an exciting AFC North battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites over the Browns with a total of o/u 37 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just via traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Browns vs. Steelers Pick6 Plays
The Steelers just picked up a massive win over the Ravens last week to get to 8-2 and cement themselves atop the AFC North division. Meanwhile, the Browns sit at the bottom of the division at 2-8. This is a lost season for the Browns but knocking off their rivals to hurt their chances of winning the division or being a top seed in the AFC playoffs would be a nice consolation prize. The Browns already upset the Ravens with Jameis Winston at quarterback and they will look to be feisty again in this matchup.
Here are my top Pick6 plays for the Thursday night AFC North matchup.
Jameis Winston More Than 216.5 Passing Yards
This Browns offense is dramatically different with Jameis Winston at quarterback. Among 40 qualified quarterbacks, DeShaun Watson ranks 30th in air yards per pass while Jameis Winston ranks second. Winston pushes the ball down the field and Kevin Stefanski is calling a pass-heavy offense with Winston at the helm. Winston has 40+ passing attempts in all three starts this season with a median amount of 334 passing yards across those starts. Winston has comfortably cleared this amount of yards in every game this season, including against the Chargers’ elite defense. The Steelers are a really difficult team to run against so the Browns should be airing it out again, sending Winston over this number.
Russell Wilson Less Than 11.5 Rushing Yards
Just like the Browns after their quarterback change, the Steelers offense looks much different with Russell Wilson. Justin Fields was involved in the running game and was taking short, easy throws. Wilson wants to push the ball downfield and has been rewarded in the passing game for it. However, Wilson does not have a lot of mobility at this point in his career. He has picked up 11 sacks over the past three games and has no real rushing threat. Wilson doesn’t have more than four carries in a game this season and many of those “carries” are just Wilson avoiding sacks and getting a yard or two, or they are QB sneaks. Wilson has exactly 14 carries for 14 yards in his four starts this season and is yet to exceed seven rushing yards in a game so he should stay under this number against Cleveland.
Jerome Ford Less Than 14.5 Rushing Yards
Jerome Ford was the main man in the Cleveland rushing offense while Nick Chubb continued his rehab. However, since Chubb returned, Ford’s role has been dwindled down to nearly zero. The return of Chubb did coincide with Ford picking up his own injury and missing a few games but that allowed Chubb to completely own the backfield for Cleveland. In the two games Ford has played since Chubb’s return, he has combined for just 15 rushing yards. Ford was a threat out of the backfield as a receiver last week, racking up four catches. However, it’s clear that Chubb will get a large majority of the carries as long as he stays healthy and his share of the workload should only increase as he gets more game fit. Ford might have a role as a receiver in this game but he should stay under this rushing yards number simply due to lack of touches.
Najee Harris More Than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs
After a five-game touchdown drought to start the season, Harris has three touchdowns in his past five games. In the four games since Russell Wilson took over, Harris’ usage rate has increased significantly. In the four games before Wilson took over, Harris had 59 total carries. In the four games with Wilson at QB, Harris has 79 total carries. That is a massive increase in usage and the reason he has been finding the end zone. Justin Fields was using his legs a lot, particularly in the red zone where he racked up five rushing touchdowns. Those touches are now going to Harris inside the red zone and he has had a lot better production. Harris was also a solid receiving threat last week with four catches for 30 yards against Baltimore. Against a Browns defense that ranks 25th in the league in EPA/rush, Harris should have a lot of success running the ball, finding the end zone in the process.
Jerry Jeudy More Than 46.5 Receiving Yards
Jerry Jeudy is another player who has benefited from a quarterback change. Since Jameis Winston took over and Amari Cooper left for Buffalo, Jeudy has been the star of this offense. He had an incredible 142 yards last week against New Orleans but has at least 73 yards in all three games with Winston at the helm. That is a number he only reached once in seven games with DeShaun Watson at quarterback. Jeudy has always been a deep-ball threat but Watson refused to push the ball down the field. Jameis Winston wants to throw deep and that has resulted in Jeudy averaging over 16 yards per catch in the past three games. Jeudy should be able to pick up a big chunk of this yardage on just one big play and if the Browns want to compete in this game, they need Jeudy to clear this number.
George Pickens More Than 59.5 Receiving Yards
George Pickens is having a massive season in Pittsburgh. He currently ranks 4th in the NFL in receiving yards and has been a big play machine. Even with Justin Fields at quarterback, Pickens was putting up big numbers. However, those numbers have gone off the charts since Russell Wilson took over as the starter. Pickens is averaging 91.25 receiving yards per game in the four games with Russell Wilson at quarterback with at least 74 yards in each game. This is partially due to the deep threat that Pickens presents. Pickens has a catch of 34 yards or more in all four games with Wilson. That means he can knock out a huge chunk of his receiving prop on one big play. Pickens should be able to attack this Cleveland secondary which has given up long passing plays all season and clear this number.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of two or more players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing two or more players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
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