The Steelers are looking to solidify themselves atop the AFC North, as they’re riding a five-game winning streak. To achieve that, they’ll need to defeat the Browns, who’ve dropped two in a row. Let’s take a look at some Browns-Steelers bets I’m looking to make on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 12 matchup.
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Game Total over 36.5 points -110
I think we’re seeing our first overreaction of a weather forecast for the 2024 season. Is it going to be ideal weather? Absolutely not. It’s going to be in the 30s with a mix of rain and snow. We’re not expected to see strong sustained winds (13-14 mph sustained with gusts 21 mph), and the probability of precipitation hourly is around 65%. Yet, this total has cratered to 36.5 points after sitting at 41 points last week. We’ve dropped nearly a touchdown over that span! I think that’s too much and am looking to take the over.
The Browns have been a very pass-heavy offense since Jameis Winston took over. He’s thrown the ball 40+ times in his three starts, including the win over the Ravens. He’ll face a great pass-rushing defense, but Winston is getting the ball out quickly. His average time to throw is one of the lowest in the league and, at 2.55, is the same as Kirk Cousins. Once the ball is out, the Steelers secondary has been average at best. I think the Browns will be able to move the ball through the air in this game.
For the Steelers, the offense has been inconsistent all season long. While Russell Wilson hasn’t been great, the Steelers have still managed an average of 27 points per game with him as a starter. Najee Harris will also be up against a Browns run defense that’s allowed the 2nd-highest explosive run rate. I simply think the weather has spooked the public so much that we have a solid opportunity to take the over at a low number.
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Jameis Winston over 214.5 passing yards -120
If the Steelers are good at anything, it’s stopping the run. With the Browns willing to let Winston air the ball out, I like him to go over his passing yards. The Steelers have played single-high coverage at the highest rate in the league. 73% of the time. Thus far, Winston is 38/62 in those situations for 544 passing yards. That’s an average of 8.8 yards per attempt and 10.2 air yards per attempt. I imagine they won’t be able to get much going on the ground and resort to having Winston throw the ball as he has been. Again, the weather isn’t going to be great, but I firmly believe this forecast is being overblown.
Player Specials: Najee Harris to have 25+ rushing yards in each half +110
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As we mentioned, the Browns run defense has left plenty to be desired. They’ve allowed the 2nd-highest explosive run rate in the league. This is a great spot for Harris to get back on track after a couple of lackluster performances. The Ravens were a bad matchup for him and it showed, rushing for just 63 yards on 18 attempts. Now, he’ll go against a Browns run defense that gave up 214 total rushing yards to the Saints last week. I expect this game to remain tight, so Harris should be carrying the ball throughout the game. Harris’ 11.6% explosive run rate and his 3.1 yards after carry after contact should help him gain at least 25+ rushing yards in each half.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
